Meteorological spring began last weekend and as we prepare to spring forward this weekend, Mother Nature appears to have sprung forward already, at least in the temperature department. However, when we get this warm, especially in the month of March, it usually one means one thing: thunderstorms.
Sneaking in a Nice Day: Friday and Friday Night
We’ve been dealing with the peskiest of pesky stationary fronts hanging out in the Ohio Valley this week, just waiting for disturbance after disturbance to kick showers and storms off along it, however, things look a bit different to close out the work week.
Said stationary boundary looks to get a brief kick off to the north during the daytime hours, which should allow clouds to part, southerly winds to continue, and sunshine to break out in the afternoon…that will cause temperatures to absolutely soar.
High temperatures into the lower to perhaps middle 80s will be common throughout the region. No, that’s not a typo, we’re going to make a run toward 85º!
For perspective, Friday’s record high is around 85º (set back in 1910) and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that that record could be in jeopardy. For reference, our average highs don’t reach 80º until late May! I mean, it’s not unheard of by any means, but it doesn’t happen all the time!
Clouds will start to build in during the overnight hours as we watch a stronger system, responsible for what looks to be an active day for severe weather across the Great Plains, start to push toward the region. This will help keep temperatures from dropping too much during the overnight hours, along with those southwesterly winds. Overnight lows fall back into the middle 60s as clouds increase.
Slight Moderation: Saturday into Sunday
Our brief break from the active pattern doesn’t look to last long as a cold frontal boundary associated with a strong low pressure system moving through the upper midwest has its eyes set on the region. This will bring us our latest chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Primetime appears right now to be early in the day on Saturday and into early Saturday afternoon. Thanks to the most early arrival of this line of showers and storms, the severe weather threat looks pretty low, though some gusty winds can’t be ruled out if any cells hang on a little longer.
Thanks to clouds and showers around during the daytime hours, we’ll keep temperatures in check compared to our Friday, but we’ll still see readings make it up into the lower to middle 70s during the afternoon hours, though some overachievement isn’t out of the question if we can try to clear out faster.
Some showers may try to re-form behind the early round into the afternoon and evening hours, but this is more uncertain. Some level of cooler and slightly drier air will try to filter in during the overnight hours, which will have our low back into the middle 40s. Still above normal this time of year.
This front is going to remain pesky as well as we head into the day on Sunday. Just what we were looking for. And right after setting the clocks forward too.
As we warm up during the day on Sunday, it’s possible we’ll have to deal with a few showers or storms lingering behind our Saturday front.. In fact, the pattern looks almost summerlike with not a ton of wind energy to keep these storms going for a long time. If you manage to miss showers or storms, highs should get back up into the middle or upper 60s or so during the afternoon. Not bad if you can stay dry.
We’ll gradually slip back through the 60s and 50s during the evening with partly cloudy skies allowing lows to settle back into the lower 50s.
More Showers and Storms: Into Next Week
Ain’t not rest for the soggy as our amped up active pattern looks to continue right on into the second week of June. That will provide us more warmth, more wind, and more opportunities for showers and thunderstorms.
More scattered showers and storms continue to roam about the region during the daytime hours on Monday as highs get back up into the lower to middle 70s. If you manage to avoid a shower or storm, you’ll likely see a mix of sun and clouds. A general theme that continues into the overnight hours except, you know, with the moon and stars. Overnight lows still warmer than we should be for highs this time of year, hovering near 60º or so.
After this, the pattern becomes more murky as we deal with fast jet stream winds zipping north of us along the Canadian border by the middle of the week. We’ll have to see how these features interact with what looks to be a mid-level low cutting itself off from the flow of the jet stream. Models are notorious for not knowing how to handle a situation like this.
However, depending on the evolution of this pattern, we’ll have to keep an eye out for renewed shower and thunderstorm chances, and even the potential for more strong storms, in the midweek timeframe. In the meantime, temperatures will be plenty warm with highs yet again flirting with 80º. We’ll keep a close eye on this pattern as we head into next week.
That’s it for me for now! You can always keep up with the latest on all of our social media platforms. Have a tremendous day and a great weekend!