It has been a lovely throwback to early fall around WABBLES this week with sunshine and milder air. However, we’re now in the back third of Meteorological Fall, so cooler air is never far away, and our first big shot is coming after a bout with showers and storms.
Warm and Stormy: Friday and Friday Night
With the early week high pressure moving out of the region and with us positioned ahead of a low pressure system, we’ll spend the day in southwest flow. Ergo, it’s getting warm in a hurry.
Warmth and moisture will be streaming in ahead of a cold front that looks to sweep through the region, which should light up showers and storms along it as this front interacts with the moist environment.
Ahead of it, high temperatures should get up into the upper 60s to near 70º or so. While this atmospheric profile will be more moist than what we’ve dealt with, we’re still not talking insane amounts of moisture here. This particular system reminds me quite a bit of the system we dealt with about 3 weeks ago: we’ve got a ton of wind energy, but not a lot in the way of instability to fuel the storms. Even so, that should generate a line of gusty showers.
This doesn’t appear to be a high-end event or anything like that, but some gusty showers to marginally strong thunderstorms will be possible. I can’t rule out a brief damaging wind gust or a low, low chance for an isolated spin-up tornado, and I can’t even rule out a severe thunderstorm warning or two, but this isn’t a huge deal. Just stay weather aware Friday and into Friday night.
We also don’t have a ton of cold air behind this first front, with overnight lows only falling into the middle 40s during the overnight hours, with showers winding down and skies slowly clearing.
Tale of Two Days: Saturday and Sunday
While our first front gets out of here early on Saturday, it’s not exactly going to cool us down very much.
High pressure briefly works back in for the day on Saturday, with at least filtered sunshine in place during the day on Saturday. Southerly winds will once again allow temperatures to get up into the upper 60s to near 70º or so in the afternoon. If you’re a fan of warm weather, I would soak it up while you can, because chilly, chilly air is on the way.
Clouds will be on the increase late in the day on Saturday as another system starts to scoot into the region. The cold front from late Friday will have knocked plenty of moisture out of the air, but there may still be some left for a few showers as this latest frontal boundary pushes through late Saturday and into early Sunday. Lows in the middle 40s on Saturday night will feel balmy compared to where we’re headed.
The front works through early on Sunday. Perhaps a shower, but the big story will be the wind shift out of the north and west behind the front, bringing in a truly Canadian airmass into the region. After an early high in the middle 50s, temperatures should plummet through the 40s through the afternoon as gusty northwest winds settle in.
Even with clouds still socking us in, we’re still looking at lows down into the lower 30s to even upper 20s as we wake up on Monday morning! Yes, 20s! Depending on how quickly moisture scoots out behind the front, we could even see a few stray flakes! Now, it won’t be any big impact when it comes to roads or anything, but just a sign of the season.
Arctic Preview: Into Next Week
Winds should calm down into Monday as the frontal boundary scoots away. We’ll see brilliant sunshine make a comeback throughout the day on Monday. However, it won’t push the mercury much.
As the arctic chill and dry air settle in, we’ll struggle to make it out of the 30s during the day, topping out roughly in the lower 40s for daytime highs. But the real chill comes at night. As clear skies and calm winds settle into the region, lows will plummet into the middle 20s! And I can’t rule out some outlying spots getting down into the upper teens!
A similar story for Veterans Day on Tuesday, with only slight moderation on Wednesday. Highs will generally be unable to escape the 40s through midweek, with perhaps a high near 50º by Wednesday. However, lows look to remain in the 20s and 30s at least until Thursday.
Models get murkier once we get toward late next week, but it does appear that this arctic blast will be short-lived. Milder air settling in as arctic high pressure scoots out will have highs back near or just above 60º by Thursday and Friday. That could set the stage for more chances for showers and thunderstorms toward next weekend.
That’s it for me for now! You can always keep up with the latest on all of our social media platforms. Have a tremendous day and a great weekend!