Good afternoon folks! We are having a nice day out there across WABBLES right now, but storm chances will be in place later this afternoon into the overnight.
Timing
The last few runs of the HRRR model are wanting to push back the time when the main event of storms push through WABBLES by a few hours. As of right now, the best timeframe is 11pm – 3am for us to see thunderstorms.
There is a very small chance this afternoon into the evening we may see some scattered storms develop ahead of the main event. Confidence in this occurring is very low, but we will be watching for this regardless.
SPC
The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (level 2/5) cutting WABBLES in half with the rest of it in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5). The primary threats for tonight are damaging winds and a few tornadoes.
Analysis
Confidence is high in a cold front that will be the primary trigger and forcing mechanism for a line of storms to move through WABBLES, this is the main event.
Just like usual, the big question will be how much instability we will have. Since this is leaning towards an overnight event, our CAPE will be steadily decreasing and leading to the line of storms weakening as it moves further east.
Wind shear will be enough to support severe weather chances but without sufficient instability, storms will struggle to go severe.
All of this leads to what looks to be a conditional threat for severe weather. This means that under the condition that the ingredients are sufficient in quantity and align correctly, severe weather is likely. If the conditions are not met, your chances for severe weather drops dramatically.
Regardless of how much of a threat we are under, it is important to have a plan just in place warnings are issued. Have multiple ways to get warnings and your safety kit ready. The most important is to not panic or stress about this, but be prepared.
That will be all for today folks! I encourage everyone to stay weather aware and pay close attention to our social media accounts @wxornotBG for further updates.
Have a blessed day!