Real-time Bowling Green weather radar:
Today, 4/24 – Clouds Increasing; Isolated PM Showers – High 66˚ / Tonight – Showers & Storms Likely – Low 54˚
3pm 65˚ – 6pm 64˚ – 9pm 59˚ – 12am 56˚ – 3am 54˚ – 6am 55°
Clouds are on the increase this afternoon as surface winds are turning to the southeast ahead of a warm front positioned to the south of Kentucky. High temperatures will top out in the middle 60s this afternoon before overcast skies take over.
Isolated showers will be possible after 5 PM today as isentropic lift will fuel precipitation chances ahead of the warm front. As an area of low pressure strengthens in Kansas overnight, the surface warm front will lift north into Kentucky by daybreak tomorrow. The warm front will provide necessary lift to produce rounds of showers and storms overnight with the best rain chances occurring after midnight.
Fortunately, it will take a while for the atmosphere to saturate overnight as current dew points are in the upper 20s/lower 30s across Kentucky. This means that storms will be elevated along the warm front with severe weather unlikely overnight. The main concern with these showers and storms will be rainfall amounts around 0.25″
Predicted precipitation totals valid through 7am CST Saturday (Courtesy: WPC)
Saturday, 4/25 – Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms – High 75˚ / Saturday Night – Thunderstorms (Potentially Severe Early); Mostly Cloudy – Low 54˚
Afternoon model data continues to suggest that there will be favorable conditions for severe weather across southern Kentucky tomorrow. Let’s breakdown what you can expect throughout the day tomorrow.
6AM-NOON: A warm front will move north across Kentucky during this time period before stalling out south of the Ohio River during the late morning. Southerly winds at the surface will increase to 10-15 mph and scattered showers and storms will move across the region tomorrow morning. Severe weather is not expected during this time although an isolated strong thunderstorm that develops behind the warm front cannot be ruled out.
The warm front will create an impressive temperature gradient across the state tomorrow which will aid in fueling storms later in the day. High temperatures will be limited to the 50s in the northern part of the state while portions of southwest Kentucky are expected to reach 80º.
Surface temperatures, winds, and pressure valid at 4pm CST Saturday (Courtesy: SimuAWIPS)
Noon-8PM: A brief window of conditions conducive to severe weather will exist tomorrow as we will be positioned in the warm sector of the previously mentioned low pressure system. The amount of heating and sunshine our area sees will be a critical factor in determining tomorrow’s severe weather potential. If we see clouds hang around throughout the afternoon, the severe threat will be diminished. On the other hand, if we see a few hours of sunshine, this will be enough to increase our instability and severe threat.
The area of surface low pressure is expected to move eastward as it passes just to the north of southern Kentucky. Enough lift will be available to initiate storms tomorrow afternoon, and storms that initiate within the warm sector will have the potential to become severe thunderstorms. Storms that develop will be isolated at first with a few supercells possible. Storms will move to the east through the afternoon and form into clusters of thunderstorms by tomorrow evening.
Wind shear and instability will be present in the warm sector tomorrow afternoon and severe storms could contain large hail, damaging winds, and the possibility of tornadoes. Heavy rain will also be possible with these storms and localized flash flooding is possible due to the saturated ground here. The SPC currently has an enhanced risk of severe weather centered over our region. I agree with this outlook as the best chance for tornadoes will occur just south of the warm front where directional wind shear is the strongest.
Day 2 Convective Outlook (Courtesy: SPC)
Overnight: The threat for severe weather is expected to move off to the east of I-65 by tomorrow after 8pm as the area of low pressure responsible for the storms moves off to the east. Expect isolated showers overnight with precipitation coming to an end by daybreak on Sunday as a weak cold front passes over the area. Rainfall totals of 0.5-1″ are possible on Saturday with higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Stay tuned with the latest severe weather forecasts over the next 24 hours as the timing and intensity of our severe weather potential is likely to change as we get a better handle on the situation and begin to “nowcast” tomorrow morning.
Sunday, 4/26 – AM Isolated Showers; Clearing Skies – High 65˚ / Sunday Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 44˚
Expect a few lingering showers during the morning hours on Sunday before high pressure takes over and skies begin to clear. Beautiful weather will return by Sunday afternoon with high temperatures reaching the middle 60s.
Skies will remain partly cloudy overnight with low temperatures dipping into the 40s.
That’s all I’ve got for this afternoon. Be sure to keep up with the latest information regarding tomorrow’s severe weather potential by following @WxOrNotBG, @wkuCHAOS, and @WarrenCountyWX on Twitter.