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Real-time Observation for Bowling Green, KY

Doing Weather Differently - @WxOrNotBG
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Thursday’s Bowling Green Weather Update

Real-Time Bowling Green Radar:

This Afternoon – Mostly Cloudy; Cold – High 37º / Tonight – Mostly Cloudy; Cold — Low 30º

3pm 37º – 6pm 34º – 9pm 32º – 12am 31º – 3am 30º – 6am 30º

After a wintry start to our day, conditions have calmed this afternoon. A light wintry mix impacted much of Bowling Green this morning making for a tricky commute. Since then, the weak upper level disturbance has cleared the region while leaving overcast skies and cold conditions behind.

Highs this afternoon will only reach the mid-upper 30’s for Bowling Green weather as mostly cloudy skies prevail through the evening and overnight hours. Calm weather persists through tonight as lows bottom out around 30º.

WPC Forecast Surface Map for Bowling Green Weather – Valid Thu 6pm – NOAA

WPC Forecast Surface Map for Bowling Green Weather – Valid Thu 6pm – NOAA

Fri – Mix of Sun & Clouds; Chilly – High 43º / Fri Night – Mostly Cloudy; Rain/Snow showers – Low 33º

Surface high pressure will nose in from the upper Midwest before skirting across the Ohio River Friday morning. Drier and cooler air will work into southern Kentucky allowing cloud cover to break up. In return, partly sunny skies will take over for the late morning/ early afternoon hours as temperatures warm into the lower 40’s.

Much of day Friday will be fairly quiet as a low pressure system develops across the Gulf States. This low will track eastward before riding up the coast late Friday night. Models have been trending a more southern track along with a weaker system moving across the Deep South.

WPC Forecast Surface Map for Bowling Green Weather – Valid Thu 6pm – NOAA

WPC Forecast Surface Map for Bowling Green Weather – Valid Sat 6am – NOAA

The northern edge of this system will likely graze portions of southern and eastern Kentucky Friday night/Saturday morning. Rain showers will break out late before a brief rain/snow mix occurs into Saturday morning. Temperatures will remain just above freezing through the overnight hours before warming back into the lower 40’s Saturday.

With that said, look for mainly a cold rain event. The southern track and absent cold air will likely keep us from seeing any snow accumulations. If you’re a snow lover like me, this one stings…..again.

Sat – Mostly Cloudy; Rain/Snow Showers – High 42º / Sat Night – Partly Cloudy; Cold – Low 32º

The first part of the weekend will feature a cold and dreary start. The aforementioned low pressure system will ride up the eastern coast as precipitation clears southern Kentucky by mid-late morning. Clouds will linger throughout much of the day as conditions begin to dry out.

Afternoon highs will be on the chilly side as temperatures only reach the lower 40’s. Lows will drop into the lower 30’s by Saturday night under partly cloudy skies.

Be sure to stay up to date with all your real time Bowling Green weather info @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on twitter. Have a great evening!

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Morning Commute A Concern

Real Time Bowling Green Weather Radar:

Today 12/18 – AM Wintry Mix; Cold, Cloudy – High 37° / Tonight – Partly Cloudy – Low 27°

We’re waking up to a mix of sleet and snow across the region this morning.  Right now it appears that accumulations, if any, will remain minor due to the light nature of the precipitation (coating of slush at best). We’ve already received reports of accumulations on elevated surfaces.

Although we may not receive much accumulation, slick spots will be inevitable during the morning commute across south central Kentucky.  We’ve already received reports of accidents this morning.  The vast majority of problems seem to be resulting from icy bridges and overpasses.

Sleet initially started to fall shortly after 2am this morning, and has been hit & miss ever since.  Again…with temps remaining below freezing until mid morning, please exercise caution on the early commute.  Below is a simulated radar image from the HRRR model.  It shows pockets of mixed precipitation still hanging around at 7am.

HRRR Simulated Radar Valid 7am - via weatherbell.com

HRRR Simulated Radar Valid 7am – weatherbell.com

Temperatures are expected to rise above freezing as we progress through the morning hours, which will help minimize any significant travel impacts as the day wears on.

We’ll be stuck with clouds for most of the day and highs will likely only make it to around the 37° mark.  We can’t rule out a stray snow shower or two moving through this afternoon.  With temps above freezing, impacts will be non-existent.

Clouds should move out of the region tonight as lows drop to around 27° across the region.

Friday 12/19 – Partly Cloudy- High 40° / Fri Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 34°

Friday should bring a calmer forecast to the region. With very little lift in the atmosphere, we can expect to see only partly cloudy skies throughout the day. Temperatures will remain on the chilly side as we’ll only see highs reach the lower 40s across the region.

Partly cloudy skies will continue during the overnight hours with lows in the mid 30s.

Saturday 12/20 – Mostly Cloudy; Isolated Rain/Snow Showers – High 41° / Sat Night – Mostly Clear – Low 30°

The models have trended much further south in regard to the weekend storm system. With this being the case, I almost completely ruled out precipitation chances for Saturday. However, the European model still brings a bit of moisture to the north, which would be enough to spit some snowflakes and rain showers. Forecasters be like…

h/t reactiongifs.com

h/t reactiongifs.com

Confidence in this scenario is pretty low, so let’s not even talk accumulations. All the models are consistent with drying us out in the afternoon hours. Thus, those mostly cloudy skies may break up a bit as the precipitation comes to an end.

Saturday night will bring mostly clear skies to the region with lows nearing 30° once more.

That should wrap up this forecast post. Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX for the latest Bowling Green weather information.

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Active Bowling Green Weather Ahead

Real-Time Bowling Green Radar:

This Afternoon – Mix of Sun & Clouds; Chilly – High 41º / Tonight – Mostly Cloudy; Light Wintry Mix — Low 32º

3pm 41º – 6pm 39º – 9pm 34º – 12am 33º – 3am 32º – 6am 33º

Surface high pressure will continue its descent from the upper Midwest while bringing in cooler, drier air across southern Kentucky. In return, we’ve had some breaks in the clouds allowing some sunshine to make a much needed appearance this afternoon. Otherwise, conditions have remained on the chilly side with temperatures reaching the lower 40’s.

WPC Forecast Surface Map for Bowling Green Weather – Valid Thu 6pm – NOAA

WPC Forecast Surface Map for Bowling Green Weather – Valid Thu 6pm – NOAA

The forecast becomes a bit more interesting late tonight/early Thursday morning. While much of our night will feature mostly cloudy skies and cold temperatures in the lower 30’s, we’ll be watching a weak upper level disturbance eject from the Central Plains.

As this disturbance skirts eastwards across the TN Valley region late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, it will weaken considerably. While precipitation coverage will look decent early on, it will be somewhat deceiving as well. Drier air will ultimately control our precipitation chances; however the chance for a mixed bag of precipitation will remain possible. This takes me into Thursday morning….

Thu – Mostly Cloudy; Light Wintry Mix – High 38º / Thu Night – Mostly Cloudy; Cold – Low 30º

There’s pretty good model agreement with this weaker system from the GFS, NAM, & EURO (the main models we utilize when forecasting). Precipitation will break out from the west while pushing eastward across southern Kentucky early Thursday morning. As it treks closer to the area, the lower levels of the atmosphere will remain dry, prohibiting some of our precipitation chances.

A sleet/snow mix will breakout Thursday morning as temperatures hover around the freezing mark. Temperatures will slowly warm into the upper 30’s by the afternoon hours before all precipitation fizzles out/moves eastward.

A dusting-1/2″ of snow for Bowling Green seems reasonable, if anything. Of course, this is going to occur during your morning commute and could provide some slick travel. Please be cautious as you head out Thursday morning. Anything on the ground won’t hang around long as we get into mid morning, thanks to temps climbing above freezing.

Otherwise, look for cloudy and cold conditions the rest of Thursday with lows dropping right around 30º. Here’s a visual breakdown from the NAM model.

NAM 12z (12km) MSLP/Precipitation Type – Valid from Thu 3am-3pm – Weatherbell

NAM 12z (12km) MSLP/Precipitation Type – Valid from Thu 3am-3pm – Weatherbell

Fri – Partly Sunny; Cool – High 43º / Fri Night – Mostly Cloudy; Rain/Snow Likely – Low 32º

We’ll continue to experience an active weather pattern through the end of the work week. Friday will offer a brief break during the day as partly sunny skies join cool highs in the lower 40’s. While conditions will seem rather calm during the day/evening hours, we’ll be watching a low pressure system develop across the Gulf States.

There remains a lot of uncertainty with this system as to exactly what type of precipitation we’ll see and when that transition will occur. It should be noted that the EURO model has been calling for a wintry set up for some time now, but with a southern track over the last few runs, one might beg to differ. Here’s a forecast surface analysis by early Saturday morning.

WPC Forecast Surface Map for Bowling Green Weather – Valid Sat 6am – NOAA

WPC Forecast Surface Map for Bowling Green Weather – Valid Sat 6am – NOAA

From the data I’ve gathered now, a low pressure system will develop well to our south, while advancing eastward across the Gulf States. A decent amount of moisture will accompany this system as it takes this southern track. Rainfall will likely break out late Friday night/early Saturday morning before transitioning to a mix.

Temperatures will fall right around the freezing mark during this period before rising back into the upper 30’s, lower 40’s by Saturday afternoon. This will allow a transition back to all rainfall for the remainder of the event.

Overall, we’re missing a couple key ingredients with this set up. First and foremost, we need a colder air mass in place. Secondly, the southern track for this storm is ideal, but for this particular setup, it’s too far south. While it’s likely we see some sort of wintry mix, I’m not putting a whole lot of stock in much accumulation.

Of course each model run will change and you can count on us keeping an eye on things for you. But that’s all I have for this evening. Be sure to stay up to date with all your real time Bowling Green weather info @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on twitter.