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Improving Weather Through Mid Week

Real-Time Radar


Yesterday’s Weather

Yesterday’s weather went about like I expected it to. There were clouds throughout the morning, and then even isolated showers. However, once the clouds clear and the sun came out, our temps rose quickly upwards. We hit 70°F yesterday, a verification of our forecast!

Yesterday's climate report. h/t NWS Louisville

Yesterday’s climate report. h/t NWS Louisville


Forecast Summary

Today: Mostly cloudy, with on and off showers throughout the day. Highs around 63°F. Overnight, look for mostly cloudy skies, with isolated showers. Lows falling to 49°F.

  • Wake up: ☁️/🌧 52°F
  • Lunch hour: ☁️/🌧 60°F
  • Evening time: ☁️/iso’t🌧 59°F

Tomorrow: Cloudy in the morning, with showers possible, giving way to partly sunny skies in the afternoon. Highs around 55°F⬇️. Overnight night, look for partly cloudy skies, with lows around 34°F.

  • Bus stop: ☁️/🌧49°F
  • Lunch hour: ☁️46°F
  • School is out: ⛅️45°F
  • Evening time: ⛅️42°F

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with highs around 51°F. Overnight, look for partly to mostly cloudy skies, with lows around 44°F.

  • Bus stop: 🌤 34°F
  • Lunch hour: 🌤 43°F
  • School is out: 🌤 51°F
  • Evening time: ⛅️ 48°F

Discussion

When you think about how dreary today, and much of tomorrow will be, just remember yesterday! We saw the sun, and it was awesome. Today? Not very similar, although, it will be warm!

h/t giphy.com

h/t giphy.com

Currently, a deepening surface low pressure system is propagating east-southeastward out of eastern Oklahoma. This is sightly offset from the deep and closed low and mid level lows in the atmosphere, helping to enhance the deepening of the surface low.

The surface low over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. h/t SPC

The surface low over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. h/t SPC

Ahead of this, we are in a weird position today. First of all, we are seeing easterly winds. It is pretty odd that we’re gonna see highs get as high as they’re forecast to get today, but that easterly flow will be advecting warm air into the region, and will help us rise into the 60s.

The 4km NAM thinks we'll get into the low 60s today. h/t pivotalweather.com

The 4km NAM thinks we’ll get into the low 60s today. h/t pivotalweather.com

Secondly, the models have really backed off on precipitation since yesterday morning. It was beginning to look like a real non-event yesterday morning, but nothing like what the models are showing now. The models are literally showing this first batch as being the only area of rainfall that we see. This is largely because of convection to our south, and because the better forcing is within this region.

The HRRR's depiction of the expected precipitation today. h/t pivotalweather.com

The HRRR’s depiction of the expected precipitation today. h/t pivotalweather.com

h/t giphy.com

h/t giphy.com

We may still get clipped by the precip shield on the northwestern side of the low tomorrow, but I wouldn’t anticipate it. As the low passes to our south and east tonight, look for strong winds to begin to come from the northwest, cooling our temperatures down. Tonight’s low will be in the 40s. Tomorrow is weird about temps, though. At midnight, it will likely still be in the low to mid 50s, and that will be as high as it gets tomorrow.

h/t giphy.com

h/t giphy.com

I know, that sucks. But that is the deal. It will be breezy during the morning hours, and much cooler. Anticipate temperatures remaining in the 40s for much of the day tomorrow, as clouds somewhat clear by the evening.

Not looking too warm tomorrow. h/t pivotalweather.com

Not looking too warm tomorrow. h/t pivotalweather.com

By Tuesday, the trough has move on out and another one is approaching. This will force a surface low to our west, and this should propagate towards us by Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. While the wind shift will be felt late in the day, I would expect temps to rise into the 50s during the afternoon, under partly cloudy skies.

h/t giphy.com

h/t giphy.com

I don’t expect precip with that low pressure system, as moisture return will be very limited, and the low won’t have a ton to work with.


Today’s Key Points

  • Weather relatively improves by Midweek.
  • Cloudy and warm today; isolated showers
  • Skies clear by late tomorrow
  • Colder and windier tomorrow
  • Tuesday should be warmer and nicer overall
  • Cold by late week?

Also: keep the folks in the southeast in your thoughts and prayers today. As the strong low pressure system propagates into that region, a severe weather outbreak is anticipated across Florida and Georgia. The SPC has issued a High Risk for that region, the rarest of convective outlooks.

Thats all I have for ya! Thanks for checking into WxOrNotBG this morning, and be sure to follow @wxornotBG and @WKUweather on Twitter and like Landon Hampton on Facebook for the latest Bowling Green Weather information. Have a great day folks!

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More Rain, and Wind, On They Way

Real-Time Radar


Yesterday’s Weather

Yesterday’s weather was actually…pretty nice! And wait! There were confirmed reports that the actual sun was shining bright during portions of the afternoon. I even saw it with my own two eyes! I feel like we hadn’t seen the sun in a very, very long time. It was starting to just feel like we may never see it again. But we did.

Yesterday's climate report. h/t NWS Louisville

Yesterday’s climate report. h/t NWS Louisville


Forecast Summary

Today: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs around 70°F. Overnight, look for cloudy skies, with rain possible late in the evening. Lows around 54°F.

  • Wake up: 🌥 57°F
  • Lunch hour: ⛅️ 65°F
  • Evening time: ⛅️ 66°F

Tomorrow: Cloudy, with rain throughout the day. Highs around 65°F. Overnight, look for mostly cloudy skies, and breezy, with rainfall remaining. Lows around 42°F.

  • Wake up: ☁️/🌧 55°F
  • Lunch hour: ☁️/🌧 63°F
  • Evening time: ☁️/🌧 61°F

Monday: Cool, windy and mostly cloudy, with isolated showers. Highs around 50°F⬇️. Overnight, look for clearing skies, with lows around 34°F.

  • Bus stop: ☁️ 42°F
  • Lunch hour: ☁️ 40°F
  • School is out: ☁️ 38°F
  • Evening time: ☁️ 37°F

Discussion

Wow, yesterday was a thrill, right? I mean, the sunshine and the nice temps…and the sunshine? I feel like we hadn’t seen the sun in daaaaaaays. That is likely because we hadn’t really seen the sun in days, but no matter. We will march on into this forecast with really the lack of hope that the sun returns within the next couple of days.

h/t giphy.com

h/t giphy.com

This forecast period is a little wild. The models are a bit all over the place with significant atmospheric features, and that translates to some uncertainty at the surface. The basics of this forecast: a deep, longwave trough is currently centered across the western US, with its trough axis extending from Oregon southeastward through central New Mexico.

The trough over the western US. h/t SPC

The trough over the western US. h/t SPC

The models are having a tough time with the development of this over the next couple of days, but basic signals of sensible weather is there, and that helps to make this forecast a bit simpler. The models bring the jet streak associated with this trough into southern Texas, with its exit region just along the central Gulf Coast by this evening.

The major jet streak associated with this trough will be centered along the Gulf Coast this evening. This will spark severe weather across the southeast, and help to force a surface low in the region as well. h/t pivotalweather.com

The major jet streak associated with this trough will be centered along the Gulf Coast this evening. This will spark severe weather across the southeast, and help to force a surface low in the region as well. h/t pivotalweather.com

As this does so, the mid and upper level trough will begin to close off, helping to deepen a surface low to our west by this evening. The jet streak energy will begin to propagate into the deep southeast, and northward into the Mid Atlantic states, helping to focus the low to our southeast by Sunday night and into Monday. This will be a deep low pressure system by that point, with a strong pressure gradient over our region on Monday morning.

The deep surface low associated with the strong mid and upper level trough is forecast to be over the Carolinas by Monday morning. h/t pivotalweather.com

The deep surface low associated with the strong mid and upper level trough is forecast to be over the Carolinas by Monday morning. h/t pivotalweather.com

So, what does this mean? Well, first of all, today is going to be niceish. We may see isolated showers this morning, but otherwise, models don’t paint rainfall in our region until late tonight and early Sunday morning. We’ll likely see clouds for a few hours this morning, and then back to partly sunny skies this afternoon.

Clouds are moving into the region early this morning. h/t COD Weather

Clouds are moving into the region early this morning. h/t COD Weather

Tomorrow and Monday look to be pretty terrible weather wise. Rain is expected both days, with more intermittent showers expected during the day on Monday. It will be much cooler and windier, as well, on the northwestern side of the low pressure. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid 60s, but will likely only be in the low 40s during the day on Monday.

Me looking at the forecast on Monday after the nice weather today:

Me looking at the forecast on Monday after the nice weather today:


Today’s Key Points

  • Very nice today; Partly sunny and warm
  • Clouds increase this evening and overnight
  • Rain likely begins before sunrise tomorrow
  • Showery all day; event totals in the 0.5″-1.0″ range
  • Showery, windy and cool on Monday
Thats all I have for ya! Thanks for checking into WxOrNotBG this morning, and be sure to follow @wxornotBG and @WKUweather on Twitter and like Landon Hampton on Facebook for the latest Bowling Green Weather information. Have a great day folks!

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The Weather Pattern Continues with More Rain

Real-time Radar


Yesterday’s Weather

Gloomy. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Seriously, yesterday was mild and cloudy and last night? The rain really started coming down. It was just like every day for the past month. Can we get a little variety?

Yesterday's rainfall. Notice the western half of the state. (Kentucky Mesonet)

Yesterday’s rainfall. Notice the western half of the state. (Kentucky Mesonet)


Forecast Summary

Today: Cloudy with a slight chance of a shower or two early but mostly dry. High around 65ºF. At night, clouds stick around with a low around 55ºF.

  • Bus stop: ☁️ 56°F
  • Lunch hour: ☁️ 62°F
  • School is out: ☁️ 64°F
  • Evening time: ☁️ 61°F

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy skies with a slight chance of rain and maybe a rumble of thunder. Highs during the day nearing 70ºF. At night, lows fall to around 50ºF.

  • Wake up: ☁️/🌧 57°F
  • Lunch hour: ☁️/🌧 67°F
  • Evening time: 🌧 55°F

Sunday: Widespread rain with perhaps a rumble of thunder. High again near the 65ºF mark. Showers chances continue at night, low around 45ºF.

  • Wake up: 🌧 48°F
  • Lunch hour: 🌧 64°F
  • Evening time: 🌧 50°F

Forecast Discussion

Can someone please take the needle off this broken record already? Clouds, rain, some wind, mild temps then rinse and repeat? Is there no way to stop this madness?

…no?

Pretty much. (Giphy)

Pretty much. (Giphy)

So our last system moved through overnight, adding even more to the rain gauge after another good soaking. So we’ll spend Friday in between systems, that means mostly dry and warm (well, by January standards).

Hi-res NAM temperatures valid 3pm today. (Somewhat) toasty. (Pivotal Weather)

Hi-res NAM temperatures valid 3pm today. (Somewhat) toasty. (Pivotal Weather)

Now that we’ll be firmly entrenched in the warm sector, those southwesterly winds can kick in and bring us even warmer temperatures on Saturday ahead of the cold front. Most of the day on Saturday will be dry but the models are picking up on a small chance for rain with a weaker system moving in during the afternoon but most of the show remains to the south.

Hi-res NAM wants to keep the main storm action off the south. Valid tomorrow at 3pm. (Pivotal Weather)

Hi-res NAM wants to keep the main storm action off the south. Valid tomorrow at 3pm. (Pivotal Weather)

This system actually has a decent shot at bringing severe weather to the deep south where the dynamics are much better. For us, though, a rumble of thunder is the most we may see in the way of “strong” weather with a bigger threat being heavier rain.

Hi-res NAM simulated radar valid 6am on Sunday showing rain on the way in. (Pivotal Weather)

Hi-res NAM simulated radar valid 6am on Sunday showing rain on the way in. (Pivotal Weather)

Looking at the models, we’re gonna have another one of these heavy rain producers before we finally get that pattern change we’ve been looking for. I’ll believe it when I see it, so until then, this is me.

"I'm sorry, am I still here?" (Giphy)

“I’m sorry, am I still here?” (Giphy)


Today’s Key Points

  • Dry today but mild.
  • Mostly dry Saturday but even warmer.
  • Rain moves back in on Sunday.
  • Pattern remains active for another week at least.

That just about does it for me! Thanks for checking into WxOrNotBG this morning, and be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG and @WKUweather on Twitter and like Landon Hampton on Facebook for the latest Bowling Green Weather information. Hope you have a terrific Friday!

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