Yesterday was basically a weird spring-like day. Let me explain. During the spring, there are plenty of days that are cloudy, pretty showery and just overall are bleh. Well, that was yesterday, only with warm temperatures associated with it. I mean, at this point, I just as much assume that Spring is already here (it isn’t, but I can dream)!
Today: Mostly cloudy this morning, with clouds breaking up by early afternoon. Highs around 72°F. Overnight, look for partly cloudy skies with lows around 55°F.
- Bus stop: ☁️ 56°F
- Lunch hour: ☁️/🌤 66°F
- School is out: 🌤 72°F
- Evening time: 🌤 68°F
Tomorrow: Partly sunny, with highs around 75°F. Overnight, look for partly cloudy skies, with lows around 58°F.
- Bus stop: 🌤 55°F
- Lunch hour: 🌤 70°F
- School is out: 🌤 75°F
- Evening time: 🌤 73°F
Friday: Partly cloudy, and breezy, and warm. Severe thunderstorms possible by the evening. Highs around 80°F. Overnight, look for severe thunderstorms early, with breezy and cooler conditions developing late. Lows around 42°F.
- Bus stop: 🌤 58°F
- Lunch hour: 🌤 75°F
- School is out: 🌤 80°F
- Evening time: 🌤/⛈ 78°F
Wow, this has turned into a fantastically interesting discussion! I am really excited about it to be honest.
It isn’t exactly an easy forecast, especially with anomalous and unseasonable temperatures remaining across the region. That may be one of the tougher portions of this forecast, as these will be tough to forecast as models don’t typically handle these sort of situations well.
To summarize today and tomorrow: warm. We’re starting off with clouds in association with forcing from a strong jet streak (area of higher wind maxima in the jet stream) that is passing to our north. These clouds look to give way to partly sunny to partly cloudy skies this afternoon, allowing temps to head towards the 70s.
While I don’t expect to start the day on Thursday in clouds, I do expect it to be similar/more of the same as today. Partly cloudy skies will dominate as temperatures soar into the mid 70s tomorrow! They may even go higher, and a record high is certainly at risk of falling.
Friday is the really interesting day, though. A deep and closed mid level low develop across the central Plains early on Friday, and will be associated with a strong jet streak. This will force a strong surface low that will propagate through the central plains and into the Iowa/Illinois/Wisconsin region by Friday night.
This low will have a strong wind field associated with it, and much colder temps behind it. These do a could of things. One, the strong wind field will make it windy on Friday. That may seem obvious, but the strong surface flow will help temps to approach 80°F on Friday. Secondly, this wind field will provide an additional source for lift on Friday evening. Shear is often times a source for vertical motion, and Friday looks to be no different with strong vertical shear present. Lastly, the cold front looks strong. This will be our primary forcing mechanism, but the atmosphere will be primed by the overall dynamics.
The atmosphere does look to destabilize pretty efficiently by Friday evening, setting the stage for a severe weather event. With high shear and strong forcing, the most likely scenario is that a strong squall line moves through Friday evening and into the overnight, and carries with it a damaging wind threat.
Now there is plenty of time for this to change, but I do think there there is a legitimate severe weather threat for Friday night. There are still discrepancies among the models, but they aren’t nearly as bad as they were yesterday. Keep it with us, and we’ll keep you all informed!
Today’s Key Points
- Clouds this morning break up
- Fantastic weather today and tomorrow; warms into the 70s
- Friday looks crazy
- Windy all day, with temps approaching 80°F
- Severe thunderstorms possible Friday night
Well, that is all I have folks! Be sure to follow @wxornotBG and @WKUWeather on Twitter, and like Landon Hampton‘s page on Facebook for the latest and most up to date information on the upcoming severe weather threat. Have a great day!