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Real-time Observation for Bowling Green, KY

Doing Weather Differently - @WxOrNotBG
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Midday Severe Weather Update

Substantial clearing is taking place in west and central Kentucky. Any sunshine will aid in the development of instability across the region, which is the fuel that storms thrive on. We expect the clearing to continue to take place in the afternoon. Temperatures are likely to top out around 79°, some places may even reach the low 80s.

Visible Satellite valid at Noon

Visible Satellite valid at Noon

The showers and thunderstorms expected to impact us this morning never developed. This means there are very few boundaries to work with in southern Kentucky, potentially keeping things from getting widespread, especially in the afternoon. However, any thunderstorms that do form this afternoon and evening will be in an environment conducive to very large hail, strong, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.

HRRR Simulated Radar - Valid 6 PM - WeatherBELL Analytics

HRRR Simulated Radar – Valid 6 PM – WeatherBELL Analytics

The Storm Prediction Center has placed south-central Kentucky in an “Enhanced” risk of severe weather for this afternoon and this evening. They agree that large hail, damaging wind, and isolated tornadoes will be possible.

SPC 11:30 Severe Weather Update

SPC 11:30 Severe Weather Update

An additional round of thunderstorms will likely form as the surface low pressure system moves closer to the region. Strong winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes will be possible with this line as well. Check back for more frequent updates and follow @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on Twitter for the latest Bowling Green weather information. Stay safe!

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Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon

Real-time Bowling Green weather radar:

Today – AM Showers, Afternoon Severe Storms Possible – High 78˚ / Tonight – Severe Storms Possible – Low 54˚

Showers will move out of the region by late morning. Scattered showers are possible throughout the afternoon. Severe storms become increasingly likely by late afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has placed us under an Enhanced Risk for severe storms today. The main threats will be Isolated Tornadoes and Large Hail. High winds and heavy rain are also possible.

SPC Severe Weather Outlook

SPC Severe Weather Outlook

Storms should begin to fire between 3 pm  and 6 pm. The 4 km NAM show discrete cells forming across the region around 3 pm.

via Weather Bell Analytics

via Weather Bell Analytics

These discrete cells are what pose the most danger, as a majority of tornadoes are produced by supercells. A secondary line of storms may move through late tonight into early Sunday morning. While these storms may also be severe, the main show will be late this afternoon and early evening. The 4 km NAM brings the second round through around midnight. The second round of storms could very well produce large hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain, with a threat for an isolated tornado.

via Weather Bell Analytics

via Weather Bell Analytics

The earlier the rain clears out this morning and any amount of sunshine this afternoon will lead to increased risk for supercells to develop this afternoon. Once again, tornadoes are possible with this type of setup, so make sure to stay up to date with the latest weather information this afternoon.

Sunday – AM Showers – High 64˚ / Sun Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 42˚

AM showers and storms will clear out early, making way for the sunshine to return by late afternoon. Temperatures will be a good bit cooler, but at least there won’t be severe weather across the region.


Monday – Sunny – High 64˚ / Mon Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 40˚

The sun will be out in full blast by Monday. Temperatures will remain in the mid 60’s, but with the sun out and about, whose complaining!


That’s it for this morning. Be sure to keep up with the latest information regarding the severe weather potential by following @WxOrNotBG,@wkuCHAOS, and @WarrenCountyWX on Twitter.

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Friday Afternoon Bowling Green Weather Update

Real-time Bowling Green weather radar:

Today, 4/24 – Clouds Increasing; Isolated PM Showers – High 66˚ / Tonight – Showers & Storms Likely – Low 54˚

3pm 65˚ – 6pm 64˚ – 9pm 59˚ – 12am 56˚ – 3am 54˚ – 6am 55°

Clouds are on the increase this afternoon as surface winds are turning to the southeast ahead of a warm front positioned to the south of Kentucky. High temperatures will top out in the middle 60s this afternoon before overcast skies take over.

Isolated showers will be possible after 5 PM today as isentropic lift will fuel precipitation chances ahead of the warm front. As an area of low pressure strengthens in Kansas overnight, the surface warm front will lift north into Kentucky by daybreak tomorrow. The warm front will provide necessary lift to produce rounds of showers and storms overnight with the best rain chances occurring after midnight.

Fortunately, it will take a while for the atmosphere to saturate overnight as current dew points are in the upper 20s/lower 30s across Kentucky. This means that storms will be elevated along the warm front with severe weather unlikely overnight. The main concern with these showers and storms will be rainfall amounts around 0.25″


Predicted precipitation totals valid through 7am CST Saturday (Courtesy: WPC)

Saturday, 4/25 – Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms – High 75˚ / Saturday Night – Thunderstorms (Potentially Severe Early); Mostly Cloudy – Low 54˚

Afternoon model data continues to suggest that there will be favorable conditions for severe weather across southern Kentucky tomorrow. Let’s breakdown what you can expect throughout the day tomorrow.

6AM-NOON:  A warm front will move north across Kentucky during this time period before stalling out south of the Ohio River during the late morning. Southerly winds at the surface will increase to 10-15 mph and scattered showers and storms will move across the region tomorrow morning. Severe weather is not expected during this time although an isolated strong thunderstorm that develops behind the warm front cannot be ruled out.

The warm front will create an impressive temperature gradient across the state tomorrow which will aid in fueling storms later in the day. High temperatures will be limited to the 50s in the northern part of the state while portions of southwest Kentucky are expected to reach 80º.


Surface temperatures, winds, and pressure valid at 4pm CST Saturday (Courtesy: SimuAWIPS)

Noon-8PM: A brief window of conditions conducive to severe weather will exist tomorrow as we will be positioned in the warm sector of the previously mentioned low pressure system. The amount of heating and sunshine our area sees will be a critical factor in determining tomorrow’s severe weather potential. If we see clouds hang around throughout the afternoon, the severe threat will be diminished. On the other hand, if we see a few hours of sunshine, this will be enough to increase our instability and severe threat.

The area of surface low pressure is expected to move eastward as it passes just to the north of southern Kentucky. Enough lift will be available to initiate storms tomorrow afternoon, and storms that initiate within the warm sector will have the potential to become severe thunderstorms. Storms that develop will be isolated at first with a few supercells possible. Storms will move to the east through the afternoon and form into clusters of thunderstorms by tomorrow evening.

Wind shear and instability will be present in the warm sector  tomorrow afternoon and severe storms could contain large hail, damaging winds, and the possibility of tornadoes. Heavy rain will also be possible with these storms and localized flash flooding is possible due to the saturated ground here. The SPC currently has an enhanced risk of severe weather centered over our region. I agree with this outlook as the best chance for tornadoes will occur just south of the warm front where directional wind shear is the strongest.


Day 2 Convective Outlook (Courtesy: SPC)

Overnight: The threat for severe weather is expected to move off to the east of I-65 by tomorrow after 8pm as the area of low pressure responsible for the storms moves off to the east. Expect isolated showers overnight with precipitation coming to an end by daybreak on Sunday as a weak cold front passes over the area. Rainfall totals of 0.5-1″ are possible on Saturday with higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Stay tuned with the latest severe weather forecasts over the next 24 hours as the timing and intensity of our severe weather potential is likely to change as we get a better handle on the situation and begin to “nowcast” tomorrow morning.

Sunday, 4/26 – AM Isolated Showers; Clearing Skies – High 65˚ / Sunday Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 44˚

Expect a few lingering showers during the morning hours on Sunday before high pressure takes over and skies begin to clear. Beautiful weather will return by Sunday afternoon with high temperatures reaching the middle 60s.


h/t reactiongifs.com

Skies will remain partly cloudy overnight with low temperatures dipping into the 40s.

That’s all I’ve got for this afternoon. Be sure to keep up with the latest information regarding tomorrow’s severe weather potential by following @WxOrNotBG, @wkuCHAOS, and @WarrenCountyWX on Twitter.