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Sunny & Muy Perfecto

Real-time Observation for Bowling Green, Ky:

Find more about Weather in Bowling Green, KY

Real-time Regional Radar:

Today 4/23 – Sunny side up! – High 72˚ / Tonight – Clear – Low 41˚

6am 45˚ – 9am 50˚ – 12pm 62˚ – 3pm 71˚ – 6pm 62˚ – 9pm 55˚

Describe today in two words: Sunny & niiiccceeee.  You’ll want the seat warmers on for the morning commute, but don’t worry, it’ll get better.

Hat tip to you, high pressure located to our north.  You should really come around more often.

h/t gamespot.com

h/t gamespot.com

We greatly appreciate the sunshine & light, northerly winds.  Personally, I’d take these conditions every day of the year.

Thu – Sunny & Warmer – High 80˚ / Thu Night – Rain Likely – Low 57˚

High pressure will begin to move out of the Great Lakes region toward the east coast (NOOOOOO!).  We should stay dry through the day, with clouds becoming more numerous as we get into the afternoon

An approaching cold front will coincide with available moisture over the area to produce scattered shower and thunderstorm chances on Thursday night.

Severe weather is not anticipated, however, strong storms cannot be ruled out.  The SPC says there is a 5% probability of seeing severe weather within 25 miles of a point just west of the Bowling Green area.

SPC outlook Thursday night

The GFS thickness model below is valid for 1am Friday morning.  It paints a wet picture across our area.

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Total rainfall amounts from this event, according to QPF, could range up to .25-50″ through Friday morning.

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Friday will see lingering showers in the early morning make way to partly sunny skies.  Afternoon temperatures should return to around 80˚.

That’ll be all for now.  Don’t forget to stay in touch with @WxOrNotBG & @WarrenCountyWx for the latest in real-time weather information.  Have a great Wednesday, folks.

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Tuesday Afternoon Update

Real-time Observation for Bowling Green, Ky:

Find more about Weather in Bowling Green, KY

Real-time Regional Radar:

This Afternoon – Sunny – High 75˚ / Tonight – Clear – Low 40˚

3pm 75˚ – 6pm 70˚ – 9pm 59˚ – 12am 48˚ – 3am 43˚ – 6am 40˚

The cold front that made its way across the region this morning is now located to our southeast.  This has allowed rays of sunshine to take over, which has resulted in temperatures jumping a few degrees higher than initially forecast this morning.

Surface Model Valid 4pm

We’ll have clear & calm conditions in place tonight, as high pressure begins to locate over the Great Lakes.

Wed – Sunny & Glorious – High 69˚ / Wed Night – Clear – Low 41˚

High pressure will remain in place over the Great Lakes, giving us an ideal forecast to enjoy outdoor activities.  Attempt to jump over swimming pools at your own risk:

h/t ohmagif.com

h/t ohmagif.com

Thu – Sunny & Warmer – High 80˚ / Thu Night – Rain Likely – Low 57˚

High pressure will scoot off to the northeast as a cold front approaches from the northwest.  This feature will shift winds out of the southwest, which will send temps on a warming trend.

As the cold front closes in on Thursday night, widespread showers & scattered thunderstorms look to impact the area.  Severe weather still doesn’t look very favorable, however, a few strong storms will be possible.

The GFS precipitation model below depicts a surface low tracking east over the Great Lakes at 7pm Thursday, with a wet atmosphere developing out ahead of the associated cold front:

GFS Precip Model Valid 7pm Thu

That’s all for now, folks..  Remember to stay connected to @WxOrNotBG & @WarrenCountyWx for the latest in real-time weather information.  Have a great Tuesday.  Thanks for reading.

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Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook – Part 2

A few weeks ago I wrote a blog post about the Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks and their usefulness to meteorologists and the public during severe weather. Since the writing of that post, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has proposed some changes to their outlooks.

SPC Experimental Convective Outlook - April 27, 2011

SPC Experimental Convective Outlook – April 27, 2011

Above is an example of what these outlooks would look like. A “marginal” risk will now replace what is known as a “see text” region. “Enhanced” would replace the high-end “slight” risk (high-end slight risk is defined by a 30% chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of a given location). “Slight”, “Moderate”, and “High” would remain the same.

The SPC has built a webpage devoted to explaining these changes more clearly. What do you think about the changes? Are they more confusing or less confusing?

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