PULL FOR Pull Tab for Radar RADAR

Real-time Observation for Bowling Green, KY

Doing Weather Differently - @WxOrNotBG
Advertisement
Author Avatar Image

Rain and Snow on the Way

Real-Time Bowling Green Weather Radar:

Today – Partly Sunny – High 38º / Tonight – Mostly Clear – Low 24º

6am 30º – 9am 32º – 12pm 36º – 3pm 38º – 6pm 33º

Most folks will walk out the door to overcast skies this morning, but no worries, the clouds are expected to thin out during the late morning/early afternoon hours, making way for rays of sun to filter in!

Embrace the sunshine, because it will still be cold. Light northerly winds will help hold afternoon highs to the upper 30s. The NAM model below displays cloud cover at 6am.

NAM Average Cloud Cover at 6 am

NAM Average Cloud Cover at 6 am

Saturday – Clouds Increasing – High 44º / Sat Night – Rain/Snow – Low 35º

Saturday will nearly be the opposite of today. Sunny skies early on in the day will be overtaken by clouds as the afternoon arrives. This is all ahead of an approaching system that will be moving into the region Saturday night. This system will likely bring a mix of rain and snow to the area during the overnight hours and into Sunday morning.

reactiongifs.com

Did I just say snow?  Here!?!  There likely won’t be any accumulation from the initial wave of precipitation that takes place Saturday night – Sunday morning, as temperatures will warm too rapidly for snow by the time the heaviest precipitation arrives during the day Sunday.

Sunday – Rain/Snow – High 42º / Sun Night – Mix/Snow – Low 30º

By Sunday evening, things get interesting. The GFS handled the last northeast snowstorm rather well, we can take a look at what the early runs of the model are pointing toward. The 00z run of the GFS has trended further north, keeping mostly rain in our area with a few backside snow showers early Monday morning.

gfsSE_prec_prec_069

GFS at 3 pm Sunday

gfsSE_prec_prec_078

GFS at 12 am Monday Morning

However, we must note that not only has the GFS model struggled with the track of the low pressure, but several other models have continually shifted the low pressure track over the past several days. Once this storm (currently moving onto the west coast) moves on land, we’ll be better able to sample the data. Therefore, the models will have better data to work with and provide more accurate guidance.

Forecasting snowfall amounts this early in the game would be nothing more than a shot in the dark. But two likely scenarios could play out.

Scenario 1:  Climate history tells us Bowling Green is too far south for a good storm, and 90 % of the time we are. South central Kentucky is not situated in a favorable spot for usual low pressure tracks during the winter. Therefore, the likely scenario is that Bowling Green sees mainly rain with some light, backside snow showers.

Scenario 2: The low pressure track remains across southern Tennessee or the upper Mississippi Valley, allowing more cold air to work into the region (but also less moisture available). This scenario would allow for several inches of snow to fall along and south of the parkways near Bowling Green. **But keep in mind, this scenario is far less likely to play out.

We will keep you up to date with the latest evolving trends with this upcoming storm. As always, be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG and@WarrenCountyWX for the latest Bowling Green weather information. Have a great day!

Advertisement
Author Avatar Image

Colder Friday; Weekend Snow Chance

This Afternoon – Cloudy & Breezy – 51˚↓ / Tonight – Iso’d Showers; Gradual Clearing Late – Low 29˚

What started out as an absolutely beautiful day has taken a bit of a turn.  A cold front has pushed east of the area, which has caused winds of 10-20mph to shift out of the northwest.

This has resulted in a temperature decline over the past few hours, which will continue into the overnight.  The surface map below will give you a better handle on what’s exactly taking place:

Surface map valid 2pm Thursday - SimuAWIPS

Surface map valid 2pm Thursday – SimuAWIPS

Lingering moisture behind the front could result in a few light rain showers and/or flurries late tonight.  Cloud cover should begin to break up after midnight.

Fri 1/30 – Partly Cloudy – High 37° / Fri Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 25°

Friday will bring clearing skies to the region, especially during the afternoon.  Clearing skies will be a result of high pressure sliding in from the north.  Northwest flow at the surface & aloft will keep temps chilly, despite the sunshine.  Don’t let that evil ball of fire deceive you.  Afternoon highs will only top out around 37°…

He obviously prefers warmer temps.

Friday night will bring more partly cloudy skies to the region as well as lows in the mid 20s.

Sat 1/31 – Showers – High 42° / Sat Night – Rain & Snow Showers – Low 33°

Our next weather maker will begin to impact the area on Saturday. Moisture parameters will amp up across south central Kentucky as an area of low pressure develops to our southwest. A quiet morning will give way to scattered showers as we get into the afternoon. A nice precip shield of rain really looks to settle in from then on. Highs will be in the low 40s.

Saturday night will continue the chance for a good soaking rain. However, with temperatures falling, a few snowflakes or sleet pellets cannot be ruled out from time to time. If temp readings are able to tumble a few degrees below guidance, then icing could become an issue. I’m not too confident in that occurring right now.  With that being said, please continue to monitor the latest forecast.

As we get into Sunday, our weather pattern will become very interesting…

via giphy.com

via giphy.com

The temperature profile for Bowling Green and surrounding areas looks fairly decent for some wintry precipitation to fall from the sky. It’s important to understand that as bad as we want to, we shouldn’t get HYPE for a system that hasn’t even made it to the Continental US.  The variability of the models continues to leave question marks on what we’ll experience.

We could be looking at an ample rainfall event, however, on the other hand, we could experience a significant snow with this system.  It depends on the track of this anticipated low pressure system.  Bottom line… this weekend will be wet, regardless of what we receive.  We’ll have a much better handle on this forecast Friday afternoon.

Thanks for stopping by the blog. As always be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX for the latest Bowling Green weather information. Have a great day!

Advertisement
Author Avatar Image

Thursday Bowling Green Weather Update

Real Time Bowling Green Weather Radar:


Today 1/29 – AM Showers; Mostly Cloudy; Breezy – High 58° / Tonight – Mostly Cloudy – Low 30°

Showers are moving across the region as we wake up this morning. The latest high res models suggest showers could last through 8 AM or so.

These showers will form in response to a cold front moving across the region throughout the day. With the approaching cold front in place, southerly flow will really amp up, creating winds that will howl at 15-25mph through much of this Thursday.

HRRR Simulated Radar 3 AM to 8 AM

HRRR Simulated Radar valid 3 AM to 8 AM

Conditions should dry out as the cold front passes to our east early this afternoon. With that being said, I think we’ll be stuck with cloud cover for much of today.

Highs look to be around 58° by around noon. A few of us may even hit 60˚, believe it or not. Temperatures will likely fall during the afternoon hours, so be sure to have the jacket ready on the commute home.

Mostly cloudy skies will continue into tonight. A few flurries may be possible from time to time. Lows will be right around 30°.

Friday 1/30 – Partly Cloudy – High 37° / Fri Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 25°

Friday will bring clearing skies to the region, especially during the afternoon hours. The clearing skies will be due to some high pressure moving in from the north. Northwest flow at the surface and aloft will keep temperatures chilly though despite the sunshine. Afternoon highs will get to 37°.

Nope, no jokes here - h/t giphy.com

Nope, no jokes here – h/t giphy.com

Friday night will bring more partly cloudy skies to the region as well as lows in the mid 20s.

Saturday 1/31 – Showers – High 42° / Sat Night – Showers/Wintry Mix – Low 33°

Saturday will bring another weather disturbance to the region. This time it looks like moisture will overspread the region as low pressure develops to the southwest. A quiet morning will give way to some afternoon showers. The rain really looks to set in the region from then on. Highs will be in the low 40s.

NAM Model Says It's a rainy Saturday... - College of DuPage

NAM Model Says It’s a rainy Saturday… – College of DuPage

Saturday night will continue the chance for a good soaking rain. However, with temperatures falling, a few snowflakes or sleet pellets cannot be ruled out from time to time. If temperatures fall a bit more than expected, then icing could occur. However, I’m not too concerned right now, so monitor subsequent forecasts.

It looks like all the fun might occur on Sunday. The temperature profile for Bowling Green looks fairly decent for some wintry precipitation. However, it’s hard to get excited for a system in the 4 to 5 day range because of the variability in the models lately. If it were up to me, I’d like to see this setup when we’re only a couple days out to really begin to get excited. It’s just something to monitor in the meantime.

Thanks for stopping by the blog. As always be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX for the latest Bowling Green weather information. Have a great day!

Advertisement