Good Thursday Morning WABBLES! I hope you have all enjoyed the week so far and haven’t been bogged down too much by the rain and storms. I unfortunately do not bring good news, however, as this active pattern looks to stick around and continue.
Starting off looking at temperatures today, highs will remain more on the milder side staying in the upper to mid 60s.
We do look to stay rather clear for the first bit of the day, with the exception of some pretty high level clouds. This, unfortunately, will change as the afternoon progresses as some rain storm chances arrive.
The rain/storms combo will be in the form of a decaying line of thunderstorms that will form off to our northwest. The SPC does have a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather outlined for our western Counties.
This line of storms will be in a quickly weakening state leading to some good possibility of some thunder, lightning, and perhaps some gusty winds. Overall, however, the risk for some severe weather is quite limited. We will be watching these storms in case of any changes throughout the day.
Tomorrow is not out of the woods of rain chances as well unfortunately. While there won’t be a risk for severe weather, some scattered afternoon showers are certainly on the table.
Overall rain chances look to be associated with some typical pop-up scattered cells in the heat of the afternoon. You may see some lightning with any bit of rain that can mature, but that will be rather limited.
Rain chances will increase going into the evening and night with showers to the north congealing and moving southward. You can expect highs for Friday to be in the mid 60s, similar to today.
We could see some gusty winds throughout the day however. This will be an all day occurrence regardless of rain, but the stronger gusts could be associated with any of those mature cells.
Overall wind gusts will likely be 10-15 mph with some more isolated 15-20 mph gusts.
Moving into the weekend realm, conditions do not improve in terms of rainfall. Chances for rain will be more widespread than Friday, but will likely start to die off as they move westward.
Temperatures will be on the much cooler side with highs only reaching the 60-62 range. This, unfortunately, will not be a very nice day overall.
Sunday is when things get a bit more interesting. Rain and storms chances will stick around on Sunday, no surprise there, but some uncertainties exist. The main uncertainty lies with storm chances, and how high they could be.
At this time, some parameters that we look for when forecasting severe weather are present. At the same time, however, some parameters look weak or non-existent. Wind energy and moisture are on the side for severe weather, but instability is appearing to be a bit unsure of itself.
Depending on how the questionable instability plays out, will be a main determining factor for our severe weather risk. For now, it is best to be aware that severe weather is possible, but not sound the alarm.
What I am much more confident will be a problem on Sunday, will be that of a heavy rain threat. This looks to be the main focus with Sunday’s system right now. Rainfall amounts upwards of 1.5″ are certainly on the table in areas that get under that heavy rain.
The areas that receive the most amount of rainfall have yet to be confidently determined, but the threat is there for all of WABBLES.
That will be all for today folks! I hope y’all have a great rest of your week, try to not let all the rain ruin any fun. We will be keeping our eyes peeled with this weather and the best way to see any updates will be to follow us on social media. You can find our social media accounts @wxornotBG on Facebook, Instagram, & Twitter.