PULL FOR Pull Tab for Radar RADAR
Advertisement
Author Avatar Image

Severe Weather Threat Looming on Friday

Real-time Radar


Yesterday’s Weather

Yesterday was basically a weird spring-like day. Let me explain. During the spring, there are plenty of days that are cloudy, pretty showery and just overall are bleh. Well, that was yesterday, only with warm temperatures associated with it. I mean, at this point, I just as much assume that Spring is already here (it isn’t, but I can dream)!

Yesterday's climate report. h/t NWS Louisville

Yesterday’s climate report. h/t NWS Louisville


Forecast Summary

Today: Mostly cloudy this morning, with clouds breaking up by early afternoon. Highs around 72°F. Overnight, look for partly cloudy skies with lows around 55°F.

  • Bus stop: ☁️  56°F
  • Lunch hour: ☁️/🌤  66°F
  • School is out: 🌤  72°F
  • Evening time: 🌤  68°F

Tomorrow: Partly sunny, with highs around 75°F. Overnight, look for partly cloudy skies, with lows around 58°F.

  • Bus stop: 🌤  55°F
  • Lunch hour: 🌤  70°F
  • School is out: 🌤  75°F
  • Evening time: 🌤  73°F

Friday: Partly cloudy, and breezy, and warm. Severe thunderstorms possible by the evening. Highs around 80°F. Overnight, look for severe thunderstorms early, with breezy and cooler conditions developing late. Lows around 42°F.

  • Bus stop: 🌤  58°F
  • Lunch hour: 🌤  75°F
  • School is out: 🌤  80°F
  • Evening time: 🌤/⛈  78°F

Discussion

Wow, this has turned into a fantastically interesting discussion! I am really excited about it to be honest.

h/t giphy.com

h/t giphy.com

It isn’t exactly an easy forecast, especially with anomalous and unseasonable temperatures remaining across the region. That may be one of the tougher portions of this forecast, as these will be tough to forecast as models don’t typically handle these sort of situations well.

giphy (16)

h/t giphy.com

To summarize today and tomorrow: warm. We’re starting off with clouds in association with forcing from a strong jet streak (area of higher wind maxima in the jet stream) that is passing to our north. These clouds look to give way to partly sunny to partly cloudy skies this afternoon, allowing temps to head towards the 70s.

h/t giphy.com

h/t giphy.com

While I don’t expect to start the day on Thursday in clouds, I do expect it to be similar/more of the same as today. Partly cloudy skies will dominate as temperatures soar into the mid 70s tomorrow! They may even go higher, and a record high is certainly at risk of falling.

Temps look very warm tomorrow as well! h/t pivotalweather.com

Temps look very warm tomorrow as well! h/t pivotalweather.com

This is how excited I am. h/t giphy.com

This is how excited I am. h/t giphy.com

Friday is the really interesting day, though. A deep and closed mid level low develop across the central Plains early on Friday, and will be associated with a strong jet streak. This will force a strong surface low that will propagate through the central plains and into the Iowa/Illinois/Wisconsin region by Friday night.

The NAM's development of the surface low, and surface temps. h/t pivotalweather.com

The NAM’s development of the surface low, and surface temps. h/t pivotalweather.com

This low will have a strong wind field associated with it, and much colder temps behind it. These do a could of things. One, the strong wind field will make it windy on Friday. That may seem obvious, but the strong surface flow will help temps to approach 80°F on Friday. Secondly, this wind field will provide an additional source for lift on Friday evening. Shear is often times a source for vertical motion, and Friday looks to be no different with strong vertical shear present. Lastly, the cold front looks strong. This will be our primary forcing mechanism, but the atmosphere will be primed by the overall dynamics.

The mid-level low and associated jet streak that will be influencing our weather on Friday look intense. h/t pivotalweather.com

The mid-level low and associated jet streak that will be influencing our weather on Friday look intense. h/t pivotalweather.com

The atmosphere does look to destabilize pretty efficiently by Friday evening, setting the stage for a severe weather event. With high shear and strong forcing, the most likely scenario is that a strong squall line moves through Friday evening and into the overnight, and carries with it a damaging wind threat.

The severe weather outlook for Friday. The SPC has us placed in a slight risk. h/t SPC

The severe weather outlook for Friday. The SPC has us placed in a slight risk. h/t SPC

Now there is plenty of time for this to change, but I do think there there is a legitimate severe weather threat for Friday night. There are still discrepancies among the models, but they aren’t nearly as bad as they were yesterday. Keep it with us, and we’ll keep you all informed!


Today’s Key Points

  • Clouds this morning break up
  • Fantastic weather today and tomorrow; warms into the 70s
  • Friday looks crazy
  • Windy all day, with temps approaching 80°F
  • Severe thunderstorms possible Friday night

Well, that is all I have folks! Be sure to follow @wxornotBG and @WKUWeather on Twitter, and like Landon Hampton‘s page on Facebook for the latest and most up to date information on the upcoming severe weather threat. Have a great day!

Advertisement
Author Avatar Image

San Antonio, TX Sees Damaging Tornadoes

On Sunday afternoon, a mid and upper level trough dug into the south-central US. This drew unseasonably high moisture values, and temperatures into the region. The SPC had outlined a severe threat in this region for a few days, but the threat didn’t look as great the day of the event.

h/t SPC

h/t SPC

Wind vectors in the atmosphere weren’t ideal, so tornadoes, and severe weather as a whole, didn’t seem too likely. The forcing was there, though, so thunderstorms were still likely. The predominant storm type became clusters of storms that conglomerated into larger complexes as they moved northeastward.

One of these complexes developed and rolled into the San Antonio, Texas region. A mesocyclone, which is an area of rotation within a thunderstorm, became embedded within the main line of storms itself, and this went on to produce significant damage in the city, including a straight line wind gust estimated to have winds between 118 mph and 138 mph.

In addition to that, the NWS there found at least 6 tornadoes that touched down near the city itself, including two EF-2 tornadoes. Because the storm travelled near the radar on Sunday night, the NWS San Antonio pulled some of the radar images and put together an awesome graphic explaining some radar imagery.

The NWS San Antonio's graphic explaining some radar imagery is awesome.

The NWS San Antonio’s graphic explaining some radar imagery is awesome.

Keep the folks that were affected by the storms in your thoughts and prayers as they clean up from the damage.

Advertisement
Author Avatar Image

Active and Warm Week Looks to Continue

Real-Time Radar


Yesterday’s Weather

How awesome has this weather been recently!? I mean, I can’t even explain how happy it makes me. One, it is running weather. I’m able to get out and go for a run consistently, which is really nice. Two, it is warming up water temperatures. That is good because I loooooove to fish. That is the one thing that allows me to break away from everything else, and regain focus. So, for me, it doesn’t get much better than the weather we have seen the past 4 to 5 days.

Yesterday's climate report. h/t NWS Louisville

Yesterday’s climate report. h/t NWS Louisville


Forecast Summary

Today: Mostly cloudy, with scattered showers throughout the day. Highs around 68°F. Overnight, look for mostly cloudy skies, with lows around 57°F.

  • Bus stop: ☁️  57°F
  • Lunch Hour: ☁️ /iso’t showers 65°F
  • School Is Out: ☁️ /iso’t showers 68°F
  • Evening time: ☁️ /iso’t showers 66°F

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy early, with clouds breaking up by the afternoon. Highs around 70°F. Overnight, look for partly cloudy skies. Lows around 55°F.

  • Bus stop: ⛅️  57°F
  • Lunch Hour: ⛅️/☀️  66°F
  • School Is Out: ☀️  70°F
  • Evening time: ☀️  68°F

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy, with an isolated shower possible. Highs around 74°F. Overnight, look for partly to mostly clear skies. Lows around 59°F.

  • Bus stop: ☀️/⛅️  56°F
  • Lunch Hour: ☀️/⛅️  70°F
  • School Is Out: ☀️  74°F
  • Evening time: ☀️   71°F

Discussion

Well, well, well…it is looking like we get a fun and active week! Finally! I feel like our “active” weeks have been light rainfall, or a kinda tough forecast that resulted in nothing significant.

As an overview of this week through Friday: its gonna be warm, folks. This stretch of warmth is pretty crazy, especially considering it is late February. I don’t know the last time we have seen 70 degree highs like this in February.

h/t giphy.com

h/t giphy.com

Well, let me start this whole thing off. We are currently under the influence of a pretty odd setup just to our west. A strong ridge is parked to our east, and a trough of low pressure has run into it, and is stretching out basically.

The low over southern Oklahoma and northern Texas is forecast to cut off, and move southeast. h/t SPC

The low over southern Oklahoma and northern Texas is forecast to cut off, and move southeast. h/t SPC

This is providing us with moisture and lift for showers today, and for the cloudy skies you’ll see. I think the clouds hinder us from hitting 70°F today, but I don’t have us too far off. Additionally, we shouldn’t see too much in the way of rainfall. The forcing for this system is a bit stretched at best, and is maximized to our south. Still, expect showers intermittently throughout the day.

The HRRR model shows rain moving in and out through the day. h/t pivotalweather.com

The HRRR model shows rain moving in and out through the day. h/t pivotalweather.com

This trough looks to actually propagate eastward and cutoff over the Gulf of Mexico. That may not sound like anything significant, but that is extremely unusual.

Weird stuff we have going on! Wednesday and Thursday will largely be more of the same kinda stuff. I think tomorrow morning struggles to clear out the clouds, but they should break up by early afternoon, allowing us to rise into the 70s.

h/t giphy.com

h/t giphy.com

Thursday looks interesting, mainly because a warm front associated with Friday’s low looks to move through, and may try to force some weak showers during the morning hours. These will be scattered and light, so I am not too concerned about them. This warm front then ushers in nice, deep southwesterly flow across the region. AKA expect temps to approach the mid 70s.

The NAM has us getting warm on Thursday! h/t pivotalweather.com

The NAM has us getting warm on Thursday! h/t pivotalweather.com

By Friday, confidence is growing that a deep surface low pressure system will approach the region, and drag a strong cold front through the region by Friday night. This looks (at this time) to be accompanied by a strong wind field in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, as well. What does this mean? Well the threat for severe weather, of course. With strong surface flow and what looks to be partly cloudy skies on Friday, temperatures will likely approach record highs during the day. The SPC already has us placed in an outlook for Friday.

The SPC outlook for severe weather on Friday. h/t SPC

The SPC outlook for severe weather on Friday. h/t SPC

Be on alert, and we’ll keep you up to date!


Today’s Key Points

  • Rain and clouds today
  • 70s Wednesday through Friday
  • Record highs may be hit
  • Strong winds Thursday and especially Friday
  • Severe Thunderstorms possible on Friday
Thats all I have for ya! Thanks for checking into WxOrNotBG this morning, and be sure to follow @wxornotBG and @WKUweather on Twitter and like Landon Hampton on Facebook for the latest Bowling Green Weather information. Have a great day folks!
Advertisement