More Storms to Track

Good Saturday Morning everyone! I hope the WABBLES community had a great Thanksgiving with fun and good times. Over in the weather department we are looking at more storms to track.

It’s also going to be windy again (giphy)

Today

Rain is expected to hold off today until we get into the evening and overnight hours (past 6pm).

Model Future Radar (Weathermodels.com)

The rain will start out fairly light and gradually become heavier as the night goes on with moderate to heavy rain possible in some areas. This will be a great soak for the region as WABBLES is still considered to be in a moderate to severe drought. We have more storms to track that will also help this.

Overall, we can look to see around .5″ or more in isolated spots from this event. Not the most rain, but anything helps around WABBLES!

US Model Rainfall (Weathermodels.com)

Temperatures will stay in the lower-60s for the highs around WABBLES, it should feel pretty nice out before the rain arrives.

US Model Highs (Weathermodels.com)

Sunday

Sunday will feature lingering rain showers through the day as the cold front passes through the WABBLES region keeping temps in the upper 40s.

Model Temps Saturday Night through Sunday (Weathernodels.com)

The biggest weather headline will be the wind gusts from that frontal passage. We will likely see wind gusts up to 40 mph around WABBLES throughout the day. The National Weather Service has mentioned a Lake Advisory will likely be needed. While it may feel like its storming, we will be safe, but there are more storms to track.

Model Wind Gusts Sunday (Weathermodels.com)

Long Range

Now for the juicy science-nerdy stuff my friends. As long range forecasting is becoming a passion of mine, I am realizing how complicated this stuff can be. So, take long range forecasts with a grain of salt.

With that being said, we have more storms to track. Next Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe we are watching for more rain and thunderstorm potential. The SPC has noted this with a rather rare Day 5 Enhanced Risk for severe weather across Dixie Alley. It is currently unclear the storm potential for WABBLES.

SPC Day 5 Outlook

We will have more storms to track and talk about later, but switching to teleconnections things get interesting. Looking at the Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) we can see it is in a negative phase and forecast to do so to open up December. When in the negative phase, this generally alludes to warmer than average conditions for WABBLES.

PNA Forecast (Weathermodels.com)

Switching to another teleconnection called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), we can see a neutral to slightly negative phase. The negative phase normally lets us see colder than average temperatures in WABBLES, but in this case it is not strong enough to overcome the stronger -PNA. This is forecast to stay the overall pattern for the opening of December.

NAO Forecast (Weathermodels.com)

These teleconnections are showing us something interesting at around the Dec. 5-7 timeframe. There is a lot of spread in the models, but an overall agreement of a neutral to ever so slightly +PNA and a steeply -NAO. This would stand to suggest the potential for a switch to a colder pattern. If the models trend to more of a +PNA, our odds of colder weather will be greater.

PNA & NAO Forecast Trends (Weathermodels.com)

Now for the more systems to track part, seeing this sharp of a change over a fairly short period of time in the teleconnections suggests that there could be a storm system to accompany this. Currently, the last couple runs of the GFS has a Vort-max (something generally needed for weather development) around the 8th of December. Ahhhh more storms to track.

Model Vorticity (Pivotal Weather)

So, the bottom line is that we have more storms to track and there is potential for a switch to colder than average temperatures for us sometime after Dec. 5-7. What this potential cold weather could bring is still a mystery at this point, unfortunately. So, follow our socials linked below for the latest info.

That will be it for today folks, I hope everyone has a great and safe weekend out there!

Have a blessed day.