Good Tuesday Morning everyone! I hope everyone has had a great start to the week and is enjoying the weather out there. We have a quiet forecast this week, but the long range forecast is interesting.
Short Term
In the short term, the most notable weather to talk about will be the increasing temperatures. Today will actually be colder than yesterday, but, starting tomorrow temps will be increasing. These temps will quickly become climatological normal.
As far as any storm systems this week, we will have plenty of high pressure until Friday when scattered showers will return. So, I would expect a whole lot of quiet for the next few days around WABBLES.
Long Range
Starting the long range forecast for WABBLES, we look at early next week where we have our next impactful system to move through. This looks like it will likely just be a rain maker with other hazards still uncertain at this time. So much for the quiet after this week.
Switching over to the temperature side of things, we have some interesting trends in the teleconnections that may allude to more available cold air in the first part of January.
The NAO shows a sudden, but concise, dip into the neutral phase around Christmas as the storm mentioned above moves through WABBLES. The Euro models are wanting it to dip further negative, but they are outliers right now.
The PNA also has a sudden change, but to the strongly positive phase around the same Christmas timeframe. All of the models are in agreement for a positive PNA, but the question is for how long and if the weather will be quiet during this time.
The MJO is looking like it will be in phase 2 as we switch into the new year. When in phase 2, in January during an El Nino, colder temperatures and lower heights are correlated throughout much of the US and WABBLES.
If you want to go even further, the MJO will naturally progress into phase 3 after phase 2. If this transition is in January and the MJO remains outside the unit circle, that would also be supportive for more cold air risks.
In Conclusion:
- NAO & PNA suggest the potential for cold weather risks going into the new year timeframe.
- MJO is very supportive for cold weather risks in the new year time frame and into the first bit of January.
- I am concerned over how long will the PNA & NAO will stay in their cold weather phases into January (models cant quite see that far).
- Unsure of what this all could mean for wintry weather potential right now.
That will be it for today my friends! I hope everyone has a great rest of the week, enjoys the quiet weather and has a great holiday weekend. Stay safe out there and visit our social media accounts @wxornotBG for the latest in the weather.
Have a blessed day!