Strong to Severe Weather Possible

Happy hump-day my friends! I hope everyone has had a great week so far and that everyone’s enjoyed the warmer weather. Although we still have more warm weather ahead of us in the next couple of days, we also have strong to severe weather possible.

Strong to Severe Weather Possible
Time to break out the rain jackets (Giphy)


Today will start out pretty calmly with mostly clear skies, with the exception of some high level clouds. Temperatures will also top out around 80 with isolated pockets of highs in the low 80s.

Model Highs Today (Pivotal Weather)

Once we get to around 4-5pm, scattered storms will begin to develop across Western Kentucky and slowly make their way towards WABBLES over the evening and overnight hours. This is where we could have strong to severe weather possible.

Model Future Radar (Pivotal Weather)

These storms will carry a conditional risk for severe weather that we will be monitoring. Currently, the SPC has WABBLES in a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk for severe weather. This is primarily for damaging straight line wind gusts with a non-zero threat for tornadoes and damaging hail. So, strong to severe weather possible tonight.

Even though temperatures should easily hit 80 today, dew points will likely struggle to get into the 60s over a consistent area around WABBLES. Ideally, for severe weather development, you want dewpoints over 60. Seeing only isolated pockets of that in the state will limit the amount of Instability we can have and our chances for strong to severe weather possible.

Model Dew Points Today (Pivotal Weather)

Looking over at wind shear, a very necessary component for severe weather, we see areas well over 30kts as these storms develop this evening. That is more than enough shear to warrant at least a low-end threat for damaging wind and strong to severe weather possible

Model 0-1km Shear (Pivotal Weather)

These setups are very fluid, so we will be monitoring this for any changes and developments throughout the day. For now, be aware that thunderstorms are likely around the state and the environment will be conducive for having isolated strong to severe weather possible.

Understanding SPC Categories

Thursday – Friday

As we start the day Thursday, rain showers will continue to exit the area and give way to a quiet morning. As we move into the afternoon and evening hours, however, we will see rain and storms return as a warm front associated with a larger system pushes through WABBLES.

Model Future Radar Thursday Afternoon and Evening (Pivotal Weather)

As far as strong to severe weather possible Thursday, that remains very unclear. Our severe weather chances will be dictated by storms tonight, how far north this warm front comes, how much clearing we see, etc. Currently, the SPC is keeping the severe risk to our southwest.

Currently, I would say severe weather is not likely along these storms within the warm front, but not impossible. Rather, we will need to watch what happens along the cold front as it moves through sometime Friday Morning/Afternoon.

Over the next 24 hours we should be getting a better picture as to our severe potential with this Thursday into Friday system. It is looking like another conditional threat for us at the moment. The bigger worry will be in terms of flooding with total rainfall from these events being in the 2-3″ range.

Model QPF through Saturday (Pivotal Weather)

In addition to heavy rain and flooding concerns, this overall system will be very strong and mature with low pressure values we don’t normally see. This means non-thunderstorm wind gusts upwards of 40mph which will cause issues on its own Friday.

Model 10 Meter Wind Gusts (Pivotal Weather)

So, regardless if a severe weather threat materializes Thursday into Friday, we can expect heavy rain with flash flooding and very gusty winds. I would recommend tying down loose objects and remaining vigilant for flash floods.

NWS Flood Safety

That will be all for this blog post folks! I hope everyone has a good rest of the week regardless of the weather. I strongly recommend you come visit our social media pages linked below for the latest on this busy weather week.