Welcome 2023!

Good Monday Morning to all of you across WABBLES! I hope everyone had a great weekend and New Years Celebrations. For our first weather blog pf 2023, we unfortunately have some rain and storm chances to analyze. Welcome 2023!

Happy New Year (Giphy)

Today & Tuesday

Starting this afternoon/evening, we will see increased rain chances along with conditional threats for strong to severe thunderstorms lasting through Tuesday. This will be a multi-wave event, each carrying a minimal threat for severe storms. Currently, The SPC has parts of WABBLES in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for both days. Our first severe threat of the new year, Welcome 2023!

SPC Day 1 Outlook
SPC Day 2 Outlook

Just like almost every severe weather threat during the winter months, the amount of instability looks questionable, to meager at best. Currently, it appears that the more sufficient instability will be well off to our southwest. However, there will still be lower amounts present making this a non-zero event.

Model Instability (Pivotal Weather)

Now let’s time these waves out. We will first see scattered rain showers around the area in the late morning and afternoon. By 6-7pm we will see the first cluster of widespread rain and thunderstorms enter WABBLES and last until 2-3am. Rain during this time will likely be heavy at times with chances for lightning and gusty winds, Welcome 2023!

Model Future Radar for Wave 1 (Weathermodels.com)

Wave 2 will come shortly after the first cluster of rain/storms ends, likely entering WABBLES around 4-5am. This will be the “main event” so to speak bringing chances for damaging wind gusts and isolated brief tornadoes within the line of storms.

Model Future Radar for Wave 2 (weathermodels.com)

The severe threat will quickly die off after the onset of the line of storms resulting in additional rain lasting into the morning commute. This will eventually taper off around the mid-afternoon timeframe.

Model Future Radar for the Remaining Rain (Weathermodels.com)

We will then get a break from the rain and storms until overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, when we will see one last wave of storms. What looks to be a broken line of storms will begin to enter the WABBLES area around midnight Wednesday.

Model Future Radar for Wave 3 (Weathermodels.com)

Currently, the threat for severe weather does not look overly concerning, but it still something to be aware of, especially since some of this will be at night. Damaging wind gusts will be the biggest threat with this, but isolated brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

By the time that this whole event is done, we will likely see rainfall totals around or over 2″. Localized flash flooding is possible, but not overly concerning, Welcome 2023!

NWS Model Total Rainfall (Pivotal Weather)

That will be all for this blog my friends! Have a great day and try to stay dry out there. Keep it tuned here and to our social media pages linked below for the latest on any severe weather chances.

Have a blessed day!