Welcome old man Winter

Good Wednesday Morning my friends! I hope everyone has had a great week so far with the sun finally returning yesterday. Unfortunately, that will be ruined with rain chances today and even more so next week when we welcome old man Winter.

Potentially coming to a theater near you. (GIPHY)


Today will be marked by some very intrusive rain chances. I say chances pretty loosely here, we will all be seeing rain, I am very confident in that. It looks to be fairly on and off this morning and lasting through the evening hours.

Model Future Radar for Today (Weather Models)

Although severe weather is not a concern, occasional rumbles of thunder are very possible. By time this is all said and done, WABBLES will likely see rain totals around an inch or locally higher.

Model QPF for Today (Pivotal Weather)

Temps should be fairly mild throughout the day as well with highs staying around the mid-50s for the WABBLES region.

Model Highs for Today (Pivotal Weather)

Thursday – Sunday

Thursday through the weekend looks to be pretty uneventful across the area. High pressure should keep all rain chances away from WABBLES. So, no impactful weather systems to talk about in this timeframe. Temperatures will also maintain around the mid to lower 40s for this time.

WPC Frontal Chart

Long Range

The long range is where things really get juicy for this forecast. It could be interesting for those who love the winter and snow as well. I have been discussing teleconnections in these blogs quite a bit and we will start there. The NAO looks to continue in its negative phase through the end of December. It gets closer to neutral, but still technically negative. This will help welcome old man winter.

NAO Model Blend Forecast (Weather Models)

Switching over to the PNA, we look like we will finally see it switch positive around the 20th of December. Combining the –NAO with the +PNA we look to finally get a good chance at bringing in shots of arctic air into WABBLES. This will help welcome old man winter.

PNA Model Blend Forecast (Weather Models)

Right around the same time the PNA changes to positive, the CPC has temperature outlook forecasting below average temperatures right over the Ohio Valley and WABBLES. Welcome old man winter.

CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook

Now, cold weather is great and all, but if you are wanting snow, we will need precip chances and moisture. The global models are suggesting we will see a system passage sometime in the 22nd-24th of December timeframe, however, model performance has been terrible so far. It is well too soon to tell if this is a rain maker or if this is a snow maker for WABBLES.

Current Forecast

Currently, I believe WABBLES sits in the area where models are fluctuating between rain and snow. Historically, this is very common for our neck of the woods which makes an accurate long range forecast very difficult. So, take this all with a grain of salt and we will see how this storm continues to look in the coming days.

That will wrap up today’s blog! I hope everyone out there can stay dry today and has a great rest of the week. As always I will link our social media accounts below where you can stay up to date on the latest information.