Rain Chances for the Holiday Weekend

Good Tuesday Morning my friends! I hope everyone had a great opener to the week and are ready for Thanksgiving coming up. While this is setting up to be a great Turkey-Day, there will be some rain chances for the holiday weekend.

It is almost here! (giphy)

Weather News

Before we dive into the forecast, there is some noteworthy weather news I would like to talk about. Late last week, areas around Buffalo, NY received intense snowfall rates and totals from bands of lake effect snow.

Crazy Snowfall (DW News)

According to the NWS in Buffalo, the highest report from the storm was 77″ (6.4 feet) in Orchard Park, NY. This occurred in a 24-48 hour timespan with many snowfall rates being around or over 3″ per hour.

The Buffalo Bills were supposed to have a home game this past Sunday, but for obvious reasons, it was moved to Detroit. Here is a picture of the stadium during the middle of the event, I would have loved to watch a football game in that!

Bills Stadium (Fox News)

Will we ever see a snowstorm like this? Considering this was driven by purely lake effect snow, it is extraordinarily unlikely. However, we can all dream.

Today & Wednesday

Moving back to our neck of the woods, things are pretty boring compared to that snow. In fact, it will be quite warm out there today with highs approaching 60 this afternoon.

Model Highs Today (Pivotal Weather)

High pressure draped just to our south will keep us clear and quiet on top of the warmth, so, I would advise everyone to grab a jacket and enjoy some time outside. As we go into winter, we may not get opportunities like this very often.

WPC Frontal Chart Today

Wednesday, or Thanksgiving-eve as I prefer, will be very similar to today as the high pressure will remain dominant over the region and we will see highs actually break into the low 60s with plenty of sunshine.

Model Highs Wednesday (Pivotal Weather)

Thanksgiving Day & Friday

As we move into the Thanksgiving Day forecast, we will see the entrance of a low pressure system from our southwest which will begin our saga with Rain Chances for the Holiday Weekend.

Model Future Radar from 6am Thursday to Midnight Friday (Weathermodels.com)

This will likely begin fairly scattered and light at first and gradually pickup in coverage throughout the day and night around WABBLES. This will by no means be a washout, but it could make for an unwanted guest on turkey day. Friday will see the continuation of the rain with it all ending as we go into Friday night/Saturday morning.

Model Future Radar Midnight Friday into Midnight Saturday (Weathermodels.com)

WABBLES should remain on the lighter side of the rainfall totals with around half an inch likely and more further south. So, no need to breakout the lifeboats quite yet for the Rain Chances for the Holiday Weekend.

Model QPF Thursday – Saturday AM (Pivotal Weather)

Throughout this tease of rain on the special holiday, temps are expected to stay around the 60 degree area around WABBLES, so at least it won’t be freezing cold Rain Chances for the Holiday Weekend.

Model Temps Thursday – Friday (Weathermodels.com)

Thanksgiving Weekend

You won’t escape the rain this weekend either around WABBLES, I’m afraid. We will see what will likely be a more mature system march through the area Saturday and Sunday. So, if you are traveling, keep this in mind as much of the Ohio Valley and into Tennessee/Dixie Alley will also have a good shot at seeing Rain Chances for the Holiday Weekend.

Model Future Radar this Weekend (Pivotal Weather)

Given this is almost a week away still, the specifics are very spotty. Up until today, the global models were not agreeing on the evolution of this storm. So, be aware that rain and maybe even some thunderstorms are on the table for the WABBLES area.

Long Range

Moving into what tends to be more of my favorite area of forecasting, let’s take a look at what we can see in the long range. Starting off, the CPC is forecasting temps in the 6-10 day range that are leaning above average for this time of year.

CPC 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook

So, when I say above average temperatures, what exactly does that mean? Well, the NWS has climatology for Bowling Green that shows the min, max, and average temperatures for every month and season. When you see that above/below average conditions are predicted, you can use this table to guide you as to what that may mean.

Long range forecasting is all about the bigger picture and not precise conditions, so keep that in mind. When we move into the 8-14 day timeframe we see an increase in below average temps off to the west and the above average temps backing off just a smidge.

CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook

Now what does this all mean at the bottom line? Well, as we close out November and welcome in December, expect average to just above average temperatures. All of this is just scraping the surface of long range forecasting and I will introduce new topics next time.

That will be all for this blog post folks! Go out and spend time outside around WABBLES and enjoy time with family and friends this Thanksgiving.

Have a blessed day.

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