Heavy Rain and Strong Storms Possible Today

Good Wednesday Morning y’all! It has been a pleasant past couple days in the region but that will change today with increasing temps and a cold front passage, we will see heavy rain and strong storms possible today.

Get your Thunder Buddies Ready (Giphy)

Today

The SPC continues to highlight WABBLES in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather today. While this is not the most robust threat we have seen, it is still something to watch with heavy rain and strong storms possible today.

Heavy Rain and Strong Storms Possible Today
SPC Day 1 Outlook

The storms look to come in a few separate waves today. We will have ongoing rain showers this morning that will clear out and provide a lull until the main events. Around 2-3pm a broken line of storms will be on the doorstep of WABBLES.

Heavy Rain and Strong Storms Possible Today
Model Future Radar for the First Wave (Pivotal Weather)

This first round of storms will be the main one to look at in terms of strong-severe potential. Mainly, we are focusing on isolated pockets of damaging winds greater than 60mph and a few isolated tornadoes. The keyword here is isolated, widespread severe weather is not expected.

After that first round we will see another broken line of showers and storms with even less of a “punch” than the first one. Likely, we will just see heavy rain and lightning with this as it moves through in the late evening into the overnight hours.

Heavy Rain and Strong Storms Possible Today
Model Future Radar for the Second Wave (Pivotal Weather)

Diving into a bit of the meteorology behind this event, we first will look at the winds about 20,000 feet in the air. This shows us a nice trough over the northern parts of the country with the jet stream wrapped around it. This will provide us with about 50 knots of wind over WABBLES which helps support stronger storms.

Heavy Rain and Strong Storms Possible Today
Model 500mb Winds (Pivotal Weather)

Going down to look at the winds at about 5,000 feet, we see more winds at about 35-40 knots which will help strengthen the lower levels of the storms. These winds will also be pointed towards the south southwest and the Gulf of Mexico which will help advect moisture into WABBLES and heavy rain and strong storms possible today.

Heavy Rain and Strong Storms Possible Today
Model 850mb Winds (Pivotal Weather)

Finally coming down to the surface, we look at dewpoints to see how much moisture will be available to help fuel any storms. We are looking at dewpoints that will likely be around 55 degrees or higher which is still sufficient for stronger storms.

Heavy Rain and Strong Storms Possible Today
Model Dew Points (Pivotal Weather)

So far, all of the “ingredients” I have talked about seem to look good for strong to severe storms. It is when we look at the instability, which is crucial, we see why the threat isn’t higher. Due to morning rain and clouds, the atmosphere will struggle to destabilize and leave us with not enough CAPE warrant a higher risk.

Model Future CAPE (Pivotal Weather)

All in all, be aware that heavy rain and strong to even isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. This is not something to panic over, but something to be aware of as you go about your day with heavy rain and strong storms possible today.

Thursday

As we go into Thursday, the cold front from today’s storms will have moved through WABBLES leaving us with high pressure building over the area. This will allow skies to be mostly clear and highs around 70.

WPC Frontal Chart Thursday

Friday

Closing out the work week, we will see more pleasant conditions as high pressure continues to build over the region and highs remaining around 70 with mostly clear skies. This is going to be a great Friday my friends!

WPC Frontal Chart Friday

That will wrap up the blog for today folks! Stay weather aware today and stay dry out there with heavy rain and strong storms possible today. I will link our social media sites where I encourage you to follow us for the latest weather information.

Have a Blessed Day!