Happy Monday to all of you across WABBLES! I hope everyone had a great Super Bowl Weekend and are ready for the week ahead. We’ve got quite the storm system set to impact this week which will help storm chances make their way back into the forecast.
We have a pretty uneventful forecast for today, some scattered flurries will be possible but those will give way to clearing skies by the afternoon. With those clearing skies, I would expect highs to be in the low to even mid 40s. It is still coat-jacket weather, but it is better than the 20s!
Tuesday features another quiet forecast with another warmup to the mid to upper 50s thanks to a warm front and high pressure that will be dominating over the region. This is quite the tease for spring, that’s for sure.
Wednesday will feature more warm and quiet weather, but I would keep an eye on the wind as it could pretty gusty out there. Gusts upwards of 30 mph will be possible, so if kites are still a thing these days, it will be the perfect day for that. Highs should break into the low-mid 60s thanks to the winds pushing in the warmer air from the south.
Thursday is where the forecast gets a bit more interesting and tricky. As we have mentioned on social media, the SPC has been watching our region for the potential of severe weather. The latest updates from the SPC have taken WABBLES out of the 15% risk area, which is equivalent to a Slight (level 2/5) Risk. It is very important to note that just because we have been taken out of the highest threat area, that does not mean our storm chances will be zero.
This threat is in association with quite the large system set to move the region as noted by the model future radar. It is also important to note that this far out, this should be used as a rough sketch of what this might look like from the grand scheme of things.
The reasoning for the shift further south and to the west of the biggest severe threat by the SPC is because of trends in the models that the better moisture and instability will be suppressed and likely not make into Kentucky at this time. Just like we have said before, during these wintertime severe weather threats instability and moisture are crucial, so, if that sweet spot of moisture and instability stays further south, it will seriously mitigate any storm chances for us.
Things are looking good for us to avoid storms at this point, however there is plenty of time for this to change so we will be watching this closely. If moisture and instability begin to look like they could make it into the WABBLES area, we could have a problem because the wind shear will be more than enough for severe weather. But, again, without instability and moisture to that wind shear basically means nothing.
That will be all for this blog post folks! I hope everyone has a great and safe week out there, and I encourage you all to visit us on our social media sites linked below for the latest weather updates.
Have a blessed day!