Wintry Weather on the Way

Good Morning to all of you across WABBLES! We have a shorter, but very important blog post for you today as we discuss the incoming chances for wintry weather.

Wait… Actual Snow Chances? (GIPHY)


Talking briefly about today, we currently have the cold front that will help set up the snow chances off to the northwest and will continue to gradually move towards us throughout the day.

The Current Position of the Cold Front

Before the cold front reaches us, temps will likely get to the mid to upper 40s across the area and then quickly plummet late this evening after the cold front passes through. So, all in all, not too terrible of a day in the afternoon.

Model Temps Throughout the Day (Pivotal Weather)

Perhaps most notably today, other than the cold front, will be the gusty winds we will see (or rather, feel). The NWS has put out a Special Weather Statement that includes all of WABBLES (towards the bottom left) for those winds. The main concern will be for wind gusts of 25-30 mph.

NWS Speacial Weather Statement Map (IEM)


And now time to alk about snow. Unfortunately, there are still more questions than answers with this system but the liklihood and confidence that we will be seeing snow is very high.

Accumulating Snow Probabilities by the NWS

The questions and uncertainties come in when we start to talk about potential snow totals. There are some models that are disagreeing with the amount of snow we could see which I believe is largely due to the track of the low pressure. Right now, some hi-res models and a global model have been gung-ho and keeping the track closer to us which results in better snow totals for us.

The NAM Model Showing the Low Pressure further west in Virginia (Pivotal Weather)

Other models, like the one below, are having the low travel a bit more to the south and east keeping the heaviest snow just out of reach of WABBLES. If you notice in the screenshot below, there isn’t any snow in WABBLES. This will be after the snow has gone through, leading to my second point. The location where the low pressure develops and strengthens will also be crucial. The first screenshot I showed you (above), the model is wanting to develop the low pressure sooner and get it going while the snow is over us. The second screenshot (below), is the exact oppositte.

The Euro Model Showing the Low Pressure Further Southeast (Pivotal Weather)

Where and when this low develops and then tracks will likely be a crucial part in how much snow we get. As of right now, the models are still loosely fluctuating between these two examples I showed, or something similar. So, which model is right? Unfortunatly it is still hard to tell but I believe the scenario where the low develops slower and further away is the most likely case. This result in a healthy dose of snow, but unfortunately keep higher totals a bit to our east. However, the data could start to change.

The Euro Model with the Likely Storm Track (Pivotal Weather)

I expect today will be when the models really get their act together and hopefully start agreeing, so there might be some changes. But, where things stand right now, 1-2″+ totals are certainyl on the table which is right in line with what the weather service is seeing.

That will be all fortoday folks! I hope everyone has a great day and I will put our social media accounts linked below. I highly reccommend come visiting us as we update very frequently on our socials.

Have a blessed day!