Significant Weather System to Affect Us Starting this Evening

Good Friday morning everyone! Happy New Years Eve! As we prepare to ring in a new year, we will unfortunately have a significant flooding threat, as well a slight risk for severe weather. I’d like to start things off with what we know right now regarding this event.


Timing is the main factor of this system that the models seem to be going back and forth on. At this point, the main risk for severe weather appears to be through the overnight hours tonight (primarily after midnight) through Saturday afternoon, with a squall line likely moving through the region sometime Saturday evening.

The exact timing of this squall line is uncertain, but the models currently suggest the squall line clearing the area by 6PM on Saturday, but of course, this is subject to change.

Broken Squall Line Likely to Move Through Saturday Afternoon

Timing for the flood threat is generally the same, although the flood threat may linger for a few hours, going into Sunday morning. As the event progresses, the flood threat will gradually increase, as the ground becomes more saturated. Keep in mind, whenever you come across a roadway, and it appears like it may be flooded, turn around, don’t drown.

Another concern is that on Sunday morning, temperatures will fall quickly. By noon on Sunday, temperatures will be around freezing. With that in mind, some isolated black ice may be possible on Sunday afternoon.

Main Impacts

Initially, we were tracking this system for a serious severe weather component. As of today, we are still watching the potential for some severe weather, but the flooding risk appears to be significant as well. If you live in a low-lying area, or in an area recently affected by the tornadoes last month, preparations need to be made for flooding.

Consider that some drainage systems in these damaged areas may not be functioning properly. If your home is easily susceptible to flooding, it may be a good idea to spend the weekend at a friend’s house. In terms of severe weather, the main threat is damaging winds, some small hail, and perhaps a few isolated tornadoes.

Day 9 image not available
Rainfall Amounts of 2-4 Inches Possible (WPC)

As I mentioned above, the potential for some isolated black ice cannot be ruled out on Sunday afternoon as temperatures plummet. Here’s a look at the main impacts once again, in graphical form.

The Bottom Line and a Look Ahead

The bottom line is that while this event will be something to keep our eyes on, this event will NOT be comparable to the tornadoes of early December. That event was extreme, and rare for this area during this time of the year. Our thoughts continue to be with everyone recovering from that event #BGStrong. With that being said, every weather system is unique, and I encourage you all to have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings this weekend.

In addition to that, go ahead and make a plan for family in the event of a tornado (lower, inner portion of home and protect from falling debris) or a flood (seek higher ground, and have a device to call for help if needed). For more information on weather safety, check out the graphics below from our friends at the National Weather Service.

After our squall line passes through on Saturday, a cold front will bring VERY cold temperatures to the area. Highs on Sunday look to be around 42 degrees, with temperatures falling throughout the day. Early next week, temperatures look to top out around 40 degrees, with lows in the 20’s. Sunshine looks to return to the spotlight starting on Sunday afternoon.

That will do it for today. Stay weather-ready, my friends. Follow our socials @wxornotbg for the latest weather updates throughout the weekend. Have a wonderful New Years holiday everyone!