Good Saturday Morning WABBLES! I hope you have all had a great end to your work week and are ready for the weekend to begin. Although it may be the weekend, it may not be very pleasant with the rain, storms, and mild temperatures ahead.
Not a whole lot to discuss today, rain chances will exist but we will dive into that in just a second. Rather, let’s start off by looking at our highs that will top out around 60. Not terrible for this time of year, but not great either.
In the morning and into the afternoon, we will be dealing with some stubborn upper level clouds. These will stick around until the rain chances start to arrive in the afternoon
These rain chances won’t be anything too serious, especially compared to what is expected tomorrow. However, Scattered rain showers along a weak cold front in the late afternoon-late evening will be likely
Sunday is where we go off the deep end and have quite a bit to discuss. Rain and storm, some of which may be severe, are in the forecast. The Day 2 Outlook by the SPC highlights this threat for storms with a
I will start off by taking a look at the temperatures that can be expected before the severe weather discussion. I would look for highs on Sunday to reach the lower 70s, which is a welcome warm up if storms wouldn’t be coming along with it.
Diving into the severe weather chances, it isn’t a slam dunk like always. We can see about half of the necessary components needed for strong to severe storms are in place. Firstly, we have a very strong Low Level Jet which will help provide wind energy/wind shear.
Secondly, we will have enough moisture, which can be though of as extrastorm fuel, to normally cause an issue with severe weather.
We start having issues when we look at CAPE, or the amount of instability in the atmosphere. Currently, it looks like CAPE values will be rather low which could strongly inhibit potential for severe weather.
Even though almost every other major severe weather component are strong, when we are missing one, it can ruin the whole thing. So, be aware that severe weather is possible, but the overall threat is rather low at this time.
What will likely be a bigger concern on Sunday will be that of a heavy rain risk. This will be dependent on where the heaviest bands of rain set up shop where anywhere ‘from 1″-2.5″ of rain will be possible.
Do not get held up by the positioning of the heaviest rain totals in the picture above, as this will likely be adjusted with future model runs. Use it to see that some areas will get quiet a lot of rain, and others not quite so much.
Moving into the next week timeframe, Monday looks to be much quieter than the past few days we have been having. A high pressure system will start to work its way into our are from Canada keeping us dry.
Until that high pressure has a chance to really work its way down towards us, there will likely be some clouds sticking around from the rain on Sunday throughout the day.
Highs on Monday look to be mild again, sticking to around 60 leading to a not so bad day overall.
That will be all for this blog post folks! I hope you all will enjoy the wet weekend even if you cannot go outside much. I encourage you all to reach out to us on Facebook, Instagram, & Twitter @wxornotBG.