Arctic Front Brings Rain & Snow Chances to WABBLES

Quiet Tonight

Clouds will steadily increase across the region tonight. Outside of that, it’ll be quiet, with lows falling to the mid 40s.

Arctic Front Brings Snow Chances

The Monday morning alarm clock will bring a noticeable uptick in cloud cover across WABBLES, along with hit & miss rain chances. This will be in response to an Arctic front closing in from the northwest:

Surface map shows cold front approaching from the northwest via WPC

As we continue into lunchtime, chances for the wet stuff will increase. This trend will continue into the afternoon. Don’t forget the rain gear before you head out Monday morning.

stylin’ & profilin’ (via

The NAM 3km has likely rain chances taking over by early/mid afternoon:

NAM 3km valid 3pm Monday via

An Arctic cold front will tank southeast over the area, allowing northwest winds to slingshot colder temperatures into the area, resulting in an changeover to snow Monday evening.

Ahead of that front, temperatures will actually be quite nice…

Timing & Impacts

With it being unseasonably early for snowfall, it’s highly unlikely we see a substantial amount of the white stuff. Ground temperatures will be warm, not to mention, temps in the 60s around noon-ish Monday, making it difficult to get anything significant.

It’s worth noting, however, that temperatures are expected to plummet through Monday afternoon & evening, with readings at or below freezing as we close in on the ~8-11pm hour. The NAM 3 km illustrates a changeover to snow during this time:

Simulated radar valid 9am Monday – 3am Tuesday via

We may see snow before then, but it’ll have a difficult time sticking. Here’s the latest thinking regarding timing of the rain to snow transition from our local NWS office:

Timing valid Monday afternoon/evening

A quick transition to snow is expected. We may experience a brief rain/sleet/snow mix before this, in response to the obvious downward trend in temperatures.

Total snow amounts should hold around 1″ or less, IF anything at all. It’s worth noting that we’ll be in the teens come sunrise Tuesday, so anything that’s able to get to the ground will likely stick. Guidance suggests a ~20-30% probability of us seeing at least 1″ of snow:

Probability of seeing at least 1″ of snow via NWS Louisville

**Please be aware of the possibility of slick spots on roads, especially bridges & overpasses, on your Monday Night/Tuesday morning commute**

Here’s the latest from NWS Louisville, mentioning their thoughts regarding any winter weather headlines being issued Monday:

will continue with mention of snowfall accums around 1 inch or less, mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces. Impacts are expected to be minor/nuisance or non-existent depending on brief rates and re-freeze potential. So, will ultimately toss around the idea of whether a Special Weather Statement or Winter Weather Advisory will be needed. The only strong case for an advisory would be that this is the first event of the year, however several factors are leaning away from an advisory including ground/road temps, and timing (mainly outside of busy commute times). Will collaborate with neighbors on this issue.

via NWS Louisville’s Sunday afternoon forecast discussion

Potential For Record Cold

By sunrise Tuesday, readings will be in the teens, with wind chills in the single-digits. Afternoon highs will be lucky to hit the upper 20s.

Another gelid night will see readings return to the low/mid teens, before a warming trend takes over.

We’ll be making a run at record low temperatures over the upcoming days across much of the Commonwealth.

The very cold air mass behind the Arctic front will threaten record low maximums and record lows across the region next week.

Record Low Maximums

Date Louisville Lexington Bowling Green

Nov 12 32/1932 28/1932 32/1911

Record Lows

Date Louisville Lexington Bowling Green

Nov 12 17/1995 14/1911 17/1894

Nov 13 16/1986 13/1911 13/1911

via NWS Louisville’s Sunday afternoon forecast discussion

Quiet, Warmer Weather Follows

Highs near 40˚ Wednesday afternoon will be followed by readings ~50˚ both Thursday and Friday afternoon. Luckily, it should remain quiet through the end of the week.

Stay up to date with the latest on our twitter platform @wxornotBG. As with any impactful weather-maker, we’ll be monitoring it’s evolution, bringing you info on the ever-altering changes over the upcoming 24-48 hours.

Snow lovers, don’t forget to perform your snow dance both tonight and tomorrow morning. We’re gonna need it.

A guy can dream, right!? Have a great night.