Dense Fog Advisory until 9 am
First of all, if you’re like me, you definitely didn’t get enough sleep after that National Title game last night. What a game by both teams! I’m not a Bama fan, so I was ultimately bummed. Both teams played a great game though!
Anyways, it is really foggy outside today. This was expected after a day full of rainfall helped to add extra moisture to the surface. When skies cleared last night, temperatures easily fell to the dewpoint and fog developed.
Despite the fog lifting later this morning, many of the forecast models develop it into a thick low-level cloud deck underneath warmer temps in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Expect highs to stay in the low to mid 40s this afternoon.
Okay, This Weather Week may be Wild
This week is about to be intense, let me just start off with that. We will certainly warm up tomorrow and Thursday, with highs expected to jump to near 60°F on both days.
Let that sink in. We just went ~2 consecutive weeks below freezing, and we’re about to JUMP INTO THE 60s! Classic Kentucky weather for ya.
Clouds will be moving in by Wednesday afternoon, but with strong southerly flow ahead of a developing low, temperatures will stay warm and it will feel good outside!
Precipitation looks to be more of a threat by Thursday morning and afternoon as greater lift moves into the region, and a precipitation shield associated with the low approaches. The rain shouldn’t amount to too much, though.
Behind the front with that system is where everything begins to get a bit complicated.
Arctic air will rush in behind that front as a new surface low begins to develop to our south and southeast by Friday morning. This low looks to form with a second piece of energy in the atmosphere approaching the region.
With the models trending towards increasing moisture values, we are looking at the threat for a mixed bag of wintry weather on Friday and Friday night.
Models have been consistent at showing a scenario with freezing rain, sleet, and snow, all with impactful accumulations. This forecast will need trends, but observational data with the main trough is now being fed into the models, so we should have a decent idea of what will happen by tomorrow.
Right now I am a bit skeptical. One, the models tend to trend surface lows northwest as we approach events, and the low is too close for comfort right now. Two, I am negative towards events like this. I don’t expect them to ever happen.
All I can say: the pattern is favorable for a winter weather event on Friday and Friday night at this time. But what will it be? That question will be answered over the next day or so.
With a crazy week of weather on tap, now would be a perfect time to give us a follow on Twitter (@wxornotBG) and Facebook (Landon Hampton). We’ll have multiple updates about this event, and the rainfall on Thursday. Have a great Tuesday, folks!