Severe Weather Possible Again Tomorrow

Posted by Landon Hampton on Tuesday, April 4, 2017


Well, this is looking like one doozy of a forecast across the region. What has changed, though!?


Today looks really nice actually. We are looking at mostly sunny skies for the majority of the day, with some clouds creeping in here by this evening. Highs should end up in the low to mid 70s this afternoon, with westerly winds flowing!


Why might clouds increase this evening? Well, our next weather maker is currently developing off to our west right now, as is seen on satellite imagery and in upper air observations.

If you look over the central Plains, you’ll see the system developing and moving eastward. *This is non-operational and preliminary GOES-16 data*
h/t COD Weather
This is what that same system looks like on a specific pressure level in the atmosphere. h/t SPC

This is the main focus of this forecast period, as this system could bring a significant round of severe weather to the region tomorrow afternoon and evening. The basic set up will feature a deep trough in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, with a strong wind maxima associated with it.

This will propagate towards the region tomorrow, placing us within a favorable region for the lifting of air at the surface. This wind maxima will force a strong surface surface low to develop to the west of the region, that will propagate to our north and west as deepen as well.

The low pressure system should form to our west tomorrow, and move towards out region. Its cold front should add additional lift to the overall atmosphere. h/t

Associated with this will be a strong cold front that will be on the leading edge of some unseasonably cold air. As temperatures rise (mid 70s are expected) under strong southerly flow, we’ll see the cold front strengthen, and this will further add to the lift in place tomorrow. In addition to this, the surface low will draw moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, providing sufficient moisture for an unstable atmosphere.

60 degree dewpoints are a great indicator of where highest instability will be in the atmosphere. The 3km NAM has some 60 degree dewpoints working their way in here tomorrow. h/t

The models are in surprisingly good agreement on this idea, and on most of this as a whole. The biggest question will be quality of moisture across the region, because this can significantly hinder energy from building in the atmosphere. We’ll be watching trends closely to make sure we nail this severe weather forecast down today for you all.

This event should be taken fairly seriously. There is significant lift present across the region, which is key in convection developing and being rooted in the environment. Additionally, strong wind shear will help to organize the thunderstorms and should allow for them to become severe. The SPC has placed us in an Enhanced Risk (3/5 on their scale) for tomorrow.

The SPC has place BG and the entire wxornotBG coverage area within an Enhance Risk. h/t SPC

The main severe weather threats are damaging winds and hail, with an isolated tornado possible. Be weather aware tomorrow, and we will keep you up to date with the latest. Well, folks, that is all I have! Be sure to follow @wxornotBG and @WKUweather on Twitter, and Landon Hampton on Facebook for the latest information.

PS: We may see light snow on Thursday.