Mid-day on Monday, Tropical Storm Joaquin formed over the western portions of the Atlantic Ocean. When it initially formed, it was fairly weak out in the open waters, and was experiencing some higher wind shear. Thus, it’s center was exposed form the convection, which isn’t good for tropical cyclones. However, today, it has gradually organized and intensified.
It now has an impressive cloud structure associated with it; and not only that, it has an impressively difficult forecast associated, too. Though the models have begun to trend one direction, the atmospheric conditions concerning the track of Joaquin are very complex. This leads to a lot of uncertainty involving the forecasted track, as you can see from weather models and the NHC.
Now, I don’t wanna be an alarmist or a hypecaster, but it is looking more and more likely that the East Coast will be impacted by a significant tropical cyclone this weekend. Nothing is set in stone, as always. Stay tuned on this one, because it is looking rocky.