Severe Weather Potential On The Rise

Real Time Bowling Green Weather Radar:

Today – Scat’d Strong Storms, Windy – High 72° / Tonight – Scat’d Storms – Low 40°

Heavy rain and storms are ongoing across much of the region this morning, but the more prominent risk for storms will be later this afternoon along a cold front that’s moving through.

The sooner this rain clears out and the amount of sunshine we see will play a role in the amount of instability we have this afternoon. This instability will be what helps fuel any storms that fire later today. The Storm Prediction Center has place all of south central Kentucky in an Enhanced Risk for severe weather:

SPC Convective Outlook Valid Friday
SPC Convective Outlook Valid Friday

Enhanced Risk means PAY ATTENTION to the weather today.

Gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rain will be the main threats, but isolated tornados is also very possible with this setup. The parameters in place this afternoon suggest that we’ll be in an environment ripe for supercell development. The National Weather Service defines a supercell as follows, and gives you a better:

Supercells are the least common type of thunderstorm, but they have a high propensity to produce severe weather, including damaging winds, very large hail, and sometimes weak to violent tornadoes.  What makes a supercell unique from all other thunderstorm types is that it contains a deep and persistent rotating updraft called a mesocyclone.  If the environment is favorable, supercell thunderstorms can last for several hours.

 Aside from these threats, flash flooding will also be a concern in some locations, especially to our north, where the bulk of the rain will fall. Make sure to keep the NOAA weather radios handy and to check the weather frequently throughout the day to get the latest.

Several rounds of storms will impact the region today. The first batch this morning will move out over the next few hours, but one or two more rounds of strong to marginally storms will slam us before the main show arrives between 3 and 9 pm. The amount of activity we see today will help determine the strength of the later storms.

The more sunshine we see, the more our atmosphere will destabilize to support severe convection. The HRRR simulated radar model below loops every 2 hours from 7am until 5pm this afternoon, and gives you a better idea of how today’s weather may behave. Note the very strong, discrete cells (supercells) impacting the area later in the day. That’s our main concern:

HRRR Simulated Radar Valid 7am - 5pm / WeatherBELL
HRRR Simulated Radar Valid 7am – 5pm / WeatherBELL

Please stay connected to the blog throughout the day, as we’ll be updating frequently. Have a plan in place in case a tornado warning is issued, and do not ignore any warnings that are issued. We’ll be posting the latest real-time info throughout the day @WxOrNotBG, @wkuCHAOS, and @WarrenCountyWx. If you don’t have twitter, I recommend scrolling to the live feed provided here on the site to keep up with the latest.

Saturday – Mostly Sunny – High 58° / Sat Night – Mostly Clear – Low 36°

After the cold front moves through tonight we will begin to cool off. Don’t worry, we aren’t talking 40’s for highs, but temperatures will struggle to make it out of the 50’s tomorrow. But look on the bright side, the sun will be out!

Sunday – Mostly Sunny – High 66° / Sun Night – Scat’d Showers – Low 48°

After a cool start, we warm back into the upper 60’s by Sunday afternoon! Yea, I’m liking the sound of that. Unfortunately, rain moves back into the picture by Sunday evening.

Please be weary of today’s severe weather threat. Keep an eye on the sky, and have multiple ways of being informed in case any watches or warnings are issued. Again, be sure to keep up with the latest south central Kentucky weather info by following @WxOrNotBG,@wkuCHAOS, and @WarrenCountyWX on twitter. Have a great day, and stay safe!