Thursday Morning Update

Real Time Regional Radar:


Today 6/19 – Partly Cloudy; Iso’d Thunderstorms – High 91º / Tonight – Partly Cloudy; Iso’d Thunderstorms  – Low 71º

6am 70˚ – 9am 80˚ – 12pm 89˚ – 3pm 91˚ – 6pm 88˚ – 9pm 73˚

Good morning, our ridge that has been making it feel like summer this week will slowly break down over the next few days. With the ridge breaking down a few disturbances will work through the region bringing rain chances with them.


Today we will start out warm once again, but expect isolated storms to pop up across the area anytime after noon due to daytime heating. These storms will be quick hitting pop-up thunderstorms and will only produce brief heavy rainfall and some thunder and lightning. Otherwise, we will see partly cloudy skies with highs in the lower 90s once again.

Tonight, we will initially see a decrease in thunderstorm activity as we lose daytime heating, but another chance for showers and storms exists after midnight as a disturbance to our west moves towards the area. Showers could begin late and continue into Friday morning.

Fri – Mostly Cloudy; Sct’d Thunderstorms – High 90º / Fri Night – Mostly Cloudy; Iso’d Thunderstorms – Low 70º

On Friday morning we might have some showers in the area that should dissipate by mid-morning.  Skies may be able to clear for a few hours before a weak cold front attempts to crawl east across the state later in the afternoon. Before the cold front moves through, temperatures will reach around 90 degrees again.

This cold front will prompt scattered showers and storms Friday that will continue into the evening. Here is what the latest run of the NAM model thinks the radar will look like from 7am to 7pm tomorrow:

00Z NAM Simulated Reflectivity Valid from 7am to 7pm Friday. (Courtesy: College of DuPage)

These showers and storms won’t be very strong but could produce some  heavy rainfall as well as some thunder and lightning. Rain chances decrease into Friday night but an isolated thunderstorm overnight is not out of the question. Otherwise, cloud cover will limit temperatures from dropping too much as our low will be around 70 degrees.

Sat – Mostly Cloudy; Sct’d Thunderstorms – High 87º / Sat Night – Partly Cloudy; Iso’d Thunderstorms Early – Low 70º

The cold front looks to stall out somewhere just to our southeast on Saturday which will trigger more showers and storms, especially during the day. We will be mostly cloudy and see temperatures a little cooler with a high in the upper 80s.

By late afternoon, cloud cover should dissipate some and we should see a decrease in precipitation coverage. As we head into Saturday night, expect a few isolated thunderstorms ending by midnight with a low temperature around 70 degrees.

Total rainfall over the next 3 days is variable depending on thunderstorm coverage, but current thinking is that we will see less than a half inch through Saturday night. Here is the WPC’s QPF map predicting 0.25-0.5 inches of rain falling between now and 7am Sunday with higher totals to our northeast.

WPC Day 1-3 QPF valid from 7am today through 7am Sunday. (Courtesy: NOAA)

That’s all I’ve got for this afternoon, for real time weather updates be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG or @WarrenCountyWX on Twitter. Enjoy your Thursday.