Wednesday Afternoon Update

This Afternoon – Partly Sunny – High 79 / Tonight – Scat’d Showers & Storms – Low 63

4pm 79 ~ 7pm 72 ~ 10pm 64 ~ 1am 63 ~ 4am 63

Warm front is located to our north, which has filtered southwesterly winds across our proximity, resulting in our unseasonably warm temperatures. Partly cloudy skies will remain in place through this afternoon, with scattered showers and storms reentering the forecast tonight.

With any luck, we’ll get to enjoy a few sun rays before nightfall arrives. Severe weather is not expected tonight, however, tomorrow is a different story. Here is a look at the current frontal positions and southerly winds advecting across our proximity:

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Thu – Showers & Storms Likely – High 70 / Thu Night – Showers & Storms Likely – Low 52

7am 62 ~ 10am 66 ~ 1pm 69 ~ 4pm 70 ~ 7pm 63

**Severe Weather Possible**
Wind Advisory: 3pm Thursday – 12am Friday

A strong cold front is still slated to approach south central Kentucky throughout our Thursday, producing a few rounds of strong, possibly severe, convection out ahead of it.  South central Kentucky looks to be impacted through the vast majority of the day, with the greatest threat for severe weather arriving during the late afternoon & evening.  To inhibit severe weather, we don’t need to see ANY sun tomorrow.  Here is a look at the latest convective outlook from the SPC, valid for Thursday.  It continues to include all of the viewing area in a “Slight Risk” (standard risk) for severe weather:

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The latest data continues to paint an ugly picture across our region.  Models are continuing to amp up instabilitytomorrow evening, closer to the main forcing with the cold front, which raises our severe weather chances.  Wind speeds of 70+ knots are showing up at the 850mb (~5,000ft) level with the LLJ, which suggests the likelihood of a significant damaging wind threat with this system.  This model can be viewed below.  It is valid for 7pm tomorrow evening:



With low level shear and ample moisture continuing to show up, the potential for tornado spin-ups will exist. Helicity values (values pertaining for an updraft to “rotate”) are also off the charts. You guys know I’m not a drama queen when it comes to weather, however, PLEASE pay close attention as this system unfolds. Similar fall severe weather outbreaks from the past have had similar setups to this scenario. Again, root for NO sunshine.

When you deal with the mesoscale features we have with this type of setup, it can be tricky, as models do not handle them very well. I wouldn’t bother with trick – or – treating plans, but rather double-checking your NOAA weather radio batteries. If you don’t have one, today would be a good idea to get one.

High pressure will build in behind the cold front late Thursday night, supplementing clearing skies across the region. Expect a quiet, pleasant Friday, with highs in the mid 60s under sunny skies.

That will be all for today, gang. I’ll be back bright and early tomorrow morning with another look at the forecast. For more frequent information, stay connected with me via Facebook and Twitter. Have a great rest of your Hump Day!