Good Wednesday morning, folks, and I hope you’re week has been off to a great start and you’re staying healthy and safe so far! We’ve had quite the stretch of beautiful, sunny, but warm, days to begin April. But now with spring here, trees and flowers blooming, and plenty of pollen in the air, that also means an increase in thunderstorm activity. Our forecast brings springtime storm chances tonight for WABBLES.
Strong to Severe Storms Late
Starting off with some calm conditions, we can expect to see a good mixture of clouds and sunshine today. With winds out of the southwest, our high temperature will jump up to another warm day near 83ºF. As we get into the evening and nighttime hours, a powerful cold front will be sweeping through the region, bringing with it some strong to severe storms.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of WABBLES nation under an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for severe weather later on today. The Enhanced Risk means that numerous severe storms are possible, with the main threats being damaging winds and hail.
By 6 pm tonight, temperatures will still be around the upper 70s, close to 80, along with dew point temperatures in the lower 60s make for a juicy environment. With a good amount of unstable energy for the cold front to play with, we could see some strong storms as we progress into the nighttime hours. Below is a snippet of what our good friends at the National Weather Service think about the forecast.
…. strong forcing right along the front could allow a very brief (1-2 hr) window for strong to severe sfc based storms. However, if storms grow upscale as expected with the linear forcing, any squall line outrunning the robust low level forcing would have very little severe threat. But given the environment, there is certainly a Slight Risk for a brief threat for strong to severe storms late Wednesday night. The front is still expected to push through the area between about 05-11z (Midnight to 6 am).
Nighttime storms can be scary, but it’s always a good idea to be prepared ahead of time. Have multiple ways to receive weather warnings from the National Weather Service. Have your phone charged, check the batteries in your NOAA Weather Radio (if you have one), and keep a flashlight nearby. Here are some tips on how to receive multiple warnings.
So, how does this look on future radar from model guidance? Here is the HRRR model showing a squall line (thin line of thunderstorms) coming through western Kentucky around 9-10 PM, and eventually gets to WABBLES by 10 PM – Midnight, and moves east of us by 1-2 AM.
With our recent dry period, flooding shouldn’t be too much of a concern, except for places like Fairview Plaza. But with the stay-at-home order in place, we should all be avoiding Fairview anyway. The cold front will pass over us after the line of storms move through, bringing cooler air.
Cooler Temperatures for the End of the Week
The cold front will not only bring storms, but also cooler temperatures and sunny skies. Clouds should move out by tomorrow morning, making for a nice and sunny Thursday.
Temperatures will be around 59ºF, with gusty winds from the northwest. Winds should blow up to 15 mph, with occasional gusts up to 25 mph.
Skies remain mostly clear Thursday night, with winds beginning to calm down. During the nighttime hours, winds will be under 10 mph, and still from the northwest. These northwest winds will continue to transport cooler air into our region, helping our temperatures dip to a chilly 37ºF.
More of the Same for Friday
Some morning frost will be possible Friday morning, so make sure to bring in those sensitive plants on Thursday evening. Friday will be another sunny day, with temperatures staying a tad below average. Expect our high to be around 56ºF.
Skies remain mostly clear for Friday evening, with some more frost possible thanks to those cooler temperatures. Lows drop to around 36ºF.
That wraps up today’s forecast. Hope you have a great Wednesday! Make sure to look for the Afternoon Video Update on Facebook and the Afternoon Weather Story on Twitter, only at @wxornotBG.