Good Sunday morning, folks! Not only has it been a busy weekend with family and friends, but it’s been a busy weekend for weather too. As we close out this holiday weekend and start the new week, active weather continues for WABBLES.
Record Breaking Weather
It’s official…. The active pattern for BG resulted in record breaking rainfall. We received 1.75 inches of rain yesterday (November 30), which beats the previous November 30 Daily Rainfall record set in 1975 and 2004.
More Rain Chances
We’ll start off today with calm conditions, but not for long. A secondary cold front will be swinging through the region, bringing with it another chance of some rain.
Model guidance is thinking the best chance to see any rain showers will be by the early afternoon hours. The HRRR thinks the 3-4pm range will be the greatest chance.
Temperatures will top out around 47ºF during the afternoon, with some strong winds. Winds will be out of the west, 10-20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph.
After the sunsets, temperatures will quickly fall. We will bottom out right around 32ºF. Winds will continue to howl out of the west 15-20 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph.
There is model disagreements on when the rain showers will exit the region. Some models (like the HRRR) think rain showers will continue off and on Sunday night and into Monday. Others think we stay dry. For this forecast we will lean on the HRRR for guidance.
So, with that said, off and on light rain showers should continue after sunset Sunday night. As temperatures reach near freezing, the HRRR thinks we could transition from rain to some snow. Timing looks to be 1-2am Monday morning.
This should be taken with a precaution, however. Remember, there is not much model agreement, and the temperature is only forecast to reach around 32ºF. Models should get a better handle on it as today goes on. Here’s what NWS Louisville is thinking for Monday morning:
The tricky part will be that surface temps will be at or above freezing for most of the time so it is going to be tough to tell how much snow will accumulate. Expect that we will see some light accums in spots where rates are more intense, and that it may melt quickly after falling. In addition to the snow, gusty winds up over 30 mph may be possible at times so visibilities may be reduced in the more intense showers.
As the day goes on, we won’t get out of the 30s. Temperatures will top out around 37ºF, with some breezy winds. Winds will be 10-15mph, and mostly out of the northwest.
By the evening hours, all rain chances will be out of the forecast. We will have mostly cloudy skies, but luckily the winds will be calming down. Temperatures will drop to a cool 25ºF.
Much Needed Break
A much needed break from the active weather arrives on Tuesday. Sunny skies and calm conditions stick around for Wednesday and Thursday as well.
Tuesday: We’ll have mostly sunny skies, with a high temperature of 46ºF. For Tuesday night, calm conditions continue with partly cloudy skies and a low temperature of 30ºF.
Wednesday/Thursday: Mid week forecast calls for continued sunny skies. There will be a slight warm up with highs around 54ºF. Overnight temperatures dip to 30ºF.
That wraps up today’s forecast. Hope you have a great Sunday! Make sure to look for the Afternoon Video Update on Facebook and the Afternoon Weather Story on Twitter, only at @wxornotBG.