Good morning folks and welcome to wxornotBG! While it’s been a dry start to the week, we have quite the change coming to the WABBLES area, and even some tricky weather for Trick-or-Treaters.
The few dry days to start the week were nice, but now we have another major low pressure system coming through, which is bringing widespread heavy rain showers and a major cool down for the end of the week. If your joints are sensitive to pressure changes like mine, you’ll be able to tell when the center of low pressure will track across the WABBLES area later today.
While most people were asleep this morning, we had some rain showers begin to move in right on schedule. Radar at 5:45 am this morning caught a soaking shower passing over the area. We will see multiple rounds of moderate to heavy showers through out today.
Rain showers will continue for the morning hours, but then we look to get a break this afternoon. The HRRR guidance is hinting at a break from the rain mid afternoon later today.
This agrees pretty well with the GFS, NSSL, and NAM 3km models, but not so much with the NAM and RDPS models. After the break, another round of light showers will come through tonight after midnight, as seen by the HRRR guidance below.
As for temperatures for today, we can expect highs to be around 65ºF, and lows around 48ºF. Winds will remain rather calm until this evening, when they pick up to around 10 mph out of the southwest.
Tricky Conditions for Halloween
There will be another break from rain after the midnight-1am timeframe. Rain showers should pick up again in the 5-7am timeframe, and continue through the morning hours. The good news, however, is that models have been coming into agreement over the past few runs that the rain will exit the area during the lunchtime hours (11am-1pm) and try to keep us dry for Trick-or-Treat.
So how much rain could we see? We could see up to 2.5 inches from today and tomorrow combined, which could cause some minor flooding concerns. Portions of the WABBLES area are still considered abnormally dry by the US Drought Monitor, but this rain event will take care of that.
Rainfall total forecast through Friday.
Temperatures tomorrow morning will reach a chilly and damp 55ºF. These temperatures will come crashing down tomorrow afternoon/evening for peak Trick-or-Treat time. Strong northwest winds of 15-20 mph (wind gusts up to 30 mph) will usher in cold air, significantly dropping temperatures. By 4 pm, we will be around 40ºF, and around 36ºF by 7 pm (see below).
Gusty winds will continue into Thursday evening, helping to drop temperatures even lower. We should bottom out overnight/Friday morning around 28ºF. The National Weather Service has issued a Freeze Watch for Thursday night into Friday morning.
Chilly and Clear Friday
We will start out Friday with the lowest temperatures we have seen in a very long time, which makes the Freeze Watch appropriate. Don’t forget to cover or bring your sensitive plants inside. Friday will be a great day to enjoy some soup or chili!
Even though we will have sunny skies, our high temperature will only reach 50ºF. Winds will also be much calmer than Thursday. Skies will remain clear into the evening hours. If heading out the door, don’t forget a jacket! Temperatures will be around 40º at 7 pm.
That wraps up today’s forecast. Hope you have a great Wednesday and rest of the week! Make sure to look for the Afternoon Video Update on Facebook and the Afternoon Weather Story on Twitter, only at @wxornotBG.