Good morning friends, and welcome back to wxornotBG! Hope your weekend has been off to a great start. We sure had a beautiful day yesterday, and it was a long time coming. After what has been considered a moderate to severe drought for the WABBLES region, rain chances ramp up to end the weekend.
Warm Up for Saturday
Well folks, the cooler temperatures sure were nice, but we are not quite there yet. We’ll have a brief warm up for our Saturday before rain chances move in tomorrow. We are currently between two cold fronts, and as we await the second one, our temperatures will rise to around 87ºF.
With sunny skies in place, our winds will predominately be out of the south-southeast, and mostly calm. We can expect a few afternoon clouds to develop, but otherwise it’ll be above normal warmth. However, we are not expecting to break any records today. The October 5 high temperature record is 93ºF, set in 1951.
Clouds will be increasing by the evening hours as this next cold front approaches. We could begin to see a few isolated showers late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, but models look to mostly hold off. Winds could be picking up a bit however overnight, with wind gusts of up to 20 mph from the south possible.
We Need Some Rain
While we are above our normal yearly rainfall, September was very, very dry. The US Drought Monitor has placed most of Kentucky in a D2 Phase, which is Severe Drought. Our area varies from Abnormally Dry (D0) to Severe Drought (D2). We will definitely need the rain.
Shower chances ramp up for tomorrow ahead of the cold front. Winds will again be out of the south, so expect temperatures to reach around 80ºF. Out first round of showers will be early Sunday morning, around 4-7 am.
Then the main event arrives Sunday afternoon, where we could see more widespread showers and even a few thunderstorms.
Showers will continue into Sunday night, making for a soggy evening. But hey, we need the rain so who’s complaining? Overall, we could see up to 2 inches of rain, but flooding shouldn’t be a major concern since we’ve been so dry. Of course, any poor drainage areas may suffer (*ahem* you know where), but otherwise the very dry ground will be glad to soak up all the rainfall.
Rain showers continue overnight into Monday morning. Temperatures will drop to around 53ºF, making for a chilly, rainy night. The cold front will finally pass through sometime overnight/early Monday morning, making for another gusty night. Wind gusts up to 20 mph will be possible again, but this time coming from the north.
Starting Off Monday with Lingering Showers
With the cold front passing early Monday morning, we should begin to clear out as the day progresses. The GFS is thinking that we will see some steady showers, maybe a few rumbles of thunder, during the morning commute between 6-8 am.
We could see up to an additional 1 inch of rain Monday morning. Showers will eventually move east of our area by lunchtime, the 12-1 pm timeframe. Even as we dry out through the afternoon, skies will remain mostly cloudy. GFS is thinking that the back edge of the cloud deck should arrive by 7 pm or so Monday evening, as seen below.
Thanks to the cold front, our afternoon highs will only reach 67ºF! Can you believe it, it will finally feel like fall. For the overnight, skies will be clear, with temperatures dipping down to around 45ºF. Now that will feel cold. That is quite the temperature spread over the course of a few days, reaching 98ºF one day, and 45ºF just a few days later.
That wraps up today’s forecast. Hope you have a great Saturday and rest of the weekend! Make sure to look for the Afternoon Video Update on Facebook and the Afternoon Weather Story on Twitter, only at @wxornotBG.