Howdy folks, and good Saturday morning to ya! I hope y’all had a great Fourth of July, and were able to celebrate with some fireworks. You’re probably wondering if we will ever see a dry, sunny day. Through this weekend, summertime storms are still in the mix, but we may have a break coming.
This pattern that we are in is a summertime pattern, having hot temperatures and afternoon pop up showers and storms, but it usually doesn’t last this long. Unfortunately, we will see scattered storms this afternoon once again.
So here’s what we got going on. A surface low pressure system will be working into the Ohio Valley today, bringing with it the best chances all weekend of seeing storms.
With afternoon temperatures reaching 86ºF, those innocent, puffy white clouds, that are called cumulus clouds, will begin to bubble and burst into towering thunderstorms. Similar to the previous week, storms will begin showing up early afternoon. The HRRR predicts some development as early as noon, and lasting into the evening hours, by 8PM or so, maybe a bit later for the counties east of I-65.
You’ve heard this plenty this past week, but as a reminder, these storms will be slow moving, with frequent lightning, and heavy downpours, capable of causing localized flooding and some wind damage.
Similar forecast for our Sunday, as afternoon temperatures will reach a toasty 90ºF. It’ll be a nice summer day until the afternoon showers begin.
The NAM predicts showers and storms over the eastern half of our area beginning around 1 pm. They should once again be hit or miss, so don’t be surprised if you stay dry.
A few isolated storms could last after the sun sets, but will have to wait for updated data later today/tomorrow morning’s blog post to get in the range of the short term convection allowing models (like the HRRR) to get a better idea of the duration.
By the nighttime hours, temperatures will dive to around 70ºF, which is normal for this time of year.
Start of the New Week
Monday: The start of the new week may have some relief from the afternoon storms. The NAM currently is keeping us dry on Monday, but the models can have difficulty with pop up storms this far out. We’ll definitely be keeping eyes on. Otherwise, temperatures will be normal for early July, topping out around 90ºF. Overnight, temperatures will drop to around 70ºF once again.
Tuesday: As of now, Tuesday is looking like a better chance for dry conditions. The GFS keeps us dry, which would be a nice break.
The GFS has been underperforming on temperatures however, so have decided to forecast temperatures a bit higher than what the GFS has. Expect a high around 91ºF, and a low near 71ºF.
That wraps up today’s forecast. Hope you have a great Saturday and rest of the weekend! Make sure to look for the Afternoon Video Update on Facebook and the Afternoon Weather Story on Twitter, only at @wxornotBG.