Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon

Batten down the hatches, as this morning’s showers, wind, and warm temperatures will make severe storms possible this afternoon. Damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes look to be the main threat followed by a chilly but quiet weekend.

Instability (Warm Temperatures) + Moisture (Morning Showers) + Lift (Cold Front) + Wind Shear = Severe Storms

1-4 pm Greatest Threat for Severe Today

The Storm Prediction Center currently has us (blue box) in an enhanced risk (3/5) for severe storms.
The Storm Prediction Center currently has us (blue box) in an enhanced risk (3/5) for severe storms.

Grab your umbrella and pay attention to alerts on your smart phone as a line of severe storms could pass through our region this afternoon.

2-6 pm simulated radar from high resolution model. (via pivotalwx)
1-6 pm simulated radar from high resolution HRRR model. (via pivotalwx)

Here are the chances that you will be effected by the storms’ main threats broken down:

  • Damaging Winds: 30%
  • Large Hail: 15%
  • Tornadoes: 10%
  • Flash Flooding: 10%

These threat levels are likely to change as we monitor two key aspects that will decide the primary impacts of these storms…

1. Storm Type

A line of storms forming along the cold front will likely produce widespread damaging winds across our region. Separate cells would likely cause isolated tornadoes, hail, and flash flooding.

2. Instability

via tenor

If we get a break in the clouds this morning, watch out, as the atmosphere will be primed for more energetic storms this afternoon (i.e. stronger winds and more thunder).

Even outside of thunderstorms, strong winds will be a problem, with sustained winds of 15-25 MPH and gusts of up to 45 MPH.

Chill-Down Tomorrow and Into the Weekend

Today’s 70 degree temperatures will be a distant memory after the cold front passes through our region tonight.

via tenor

Quiet, dry, sunny weather comes at the expense of low 50’s for highs from tomorrow through Sunday, and this trend of cool, quiet weather extends into early next week.

via NWS Louisville
via NWS Louisville

Prepare for the Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon

  • Secure loose outdoor items
  • Park your car indoors to prevent potential hail damage
  • Clear out your tornado safe space (interior room in lowest level of building) in case you come under a tornado warning
  • Never drive through floodwaters
  • Follow @wxornotBG for the latest updates

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