Warm and Breezy Today, Storm Chances Tomorrow

Howdy folks, and Happy Hump Day! We sure have lucked out the past few days with beautiful weather. Hopefully y’all had time to enjoy it a little bit. Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end. It will be warm and breezy today, but storm chances tomorrow.

Giphy
(Giphy)

Breezy, Beautiful, Bowling Green

Today will surely feel like a spring day. High pressure to our east will be departing today, but should still have some sunshine through the afternoon hours. South winds will be strong today, around 15-20 mph this afternoon, with wind gusts up to 30 mph possible.

Strong south-southeast winds today. (Pivotal Weather)
Strong south-southeast winds today. (Pivotal Weather)
Watch out for trampolines and garbage cans today! (Pinterest)
Watch out for trampolines and garbage cans today! (Pinterest)

These winds will help drive up our temperatures this afternoon into the low 70s. Yes you read that right, the 70s. We haven’t seen temperatures like this in quite a while.

Excited for 70s (Giphy)
Excited for 70s (Giphy)

However…

However, a major weather system out west will be dragging a warm front through our area tonight, bringing rain chances with it.

Major weather system out west will bring rain to our area (WPC)
Major weather system out west will bring rain to our area (WPC)

Timing:

Rain chances should begin to enter our western region around 8 PM. The bulk of heavy rain will come around midnight tonight. This line of showers will be decaying over our area, making rainfall totals challenging.

HRRR model simulated radar. (Pivotal Weather)
HRRR model simulated radar. (Pivotal Weather)

Our region could see anywhere from 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain by 7 AM Thursday. Our western counties will likely see more rain totals than our counties east of I-65 due to this line of showers decaying tonight.

Temperatures tonight will only drop into the low 60s, maybe even upper 50s for a few places. Winds will remain quite breezy, around the 15-25 mph range.

That wind can be mean (Giphy)
That wind can be mean (Giphy)

Severe Storm Potential Tomorrow

Currently, the Storm Prediction Center has our area under a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) for severe weather tomorrow.

Slight Risk for severe weather tomorrow (Level 2 out of 5) (SPC)
Slight Risk for severe weather tomorrow (Level 2 out of 5) (SPC)

Strong southerly winds in the 20-25 mph range, with 40 mph gusts possible, (also referred as the low-level jet) will be transporting more moisture into our area Thursday morning and afternoon.

Like today, these winds will drive temperatures into the 70s once again. The cold front to our west will be making its way into our area, and will act as a lifting mechanism for storm development/initiation.

Thursday Evening (WPC)
Thursday Evening (WPC)

With the low-level jet over our area, wind shear is substantial for storms, and the severity of storms will be dependent on the amount of instability in the atmosphere by the afternoon hours.

Predicting the future can be hard. (Giphy)
Predicting the future can be hard. (Giphy)

What is wind shear? Wind shear is the change in wind direction and/or wind speed with height.

Wind Shear diagram. (NWS)
Wind Shear diagram. (NWS)

Our best chances are seeing some strong storms, with the main threat being damaging winds and heavy rainfall. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out either.

Isolated rain showers will persist through the day tomorrow, before a narrow line of thunderstorms is expected to arrive. The NAM 3km predicts a line of storms around 7 PM tomorrow evening.

NAM 3km at 7 PM Thursday (Pivotal Weather)
NAM 3km at 7 PM Thursday (Pivotal Weather)

If storms fail to initiate, then we will have some heavy rain showers move through around this time period. After the passage of evening storms/rain showers, skies will begin to clear up through the overnight hours. Since the cold front will have passed by the evening, temperatures will drop into the low 40s overnight.

Clearing Up for the Weekend

High pressure will settle in behind this active low pressure system, bringing back sunshine. Temperatures on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will only be in the upper 40s to low 50s, but we will remain dry.

Not bad at all. (Giphy)
Not bad at all. (Giphy)
NW winds will help keep temps cool (Pivotal Weather)
NW winds will help keep temps cool (Pivotal Weather)

Northwest winds will help keep temperatures cooler, but they will remain calm and under 10 mph. Low temperatures for the weekend will be in the low 30s.

That wraps up today’s forecast. Hope you have a great Wednesday and rest of the week! Make sure to look for the Afternoon Video Update on Facebook and the Afternoon Weather Story on Twitter/Instagram, only on @wxornotBG.


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