Good morning, and happy 2019! I hope you had a great holiday and are ready to tackle the New Year with a vengeance!
Not Ideal Today
This morning, we’re starting out cloudy & damp, thanks to low-level moisture hanging around behind yesterday’s system.
Temperatures are in the low-40s, with patchy drizzle annoying us as well. Thermometers won’t be moving much at all today, thanks to winds out of the northwest.
Given these conditions, you can bet on dreary weather for the New Year, and beyond…
It’s worth noting that with 1-3″ of rain falling, local creeks and rivers have exceeded flood stage. Flood Warnings are out for Drakes Creek near Alvaton (top graphic) and the Green River in Woodbury (bottom graphic):
This has caused many flood-prone roadways/areas under water. Please avoid these areas if possible.
For Alvaton residents, you are probably familiar with Sinking Creek (H.E. Johnson Road). Sinking Creek will rise tremendously over the next 12 hours. Drive slow but f you are approaching as the water appears as a roadway. Rising levels 10+ feet. Be safe! pic.twitter.com/iEmIHCX3O2
— Plano Community Connection (@plano_kentucky) January 1, 2019
Wednesday will start out in similar fashion, before scattered, light rain chances arrive by early evening.
Rain chances will remain Wednesday night into early Thursday.
This won’t be a widespread rain event. In fact some, if not all of us, won’t get much at all, thanks to high pressure shunting off most of the precip to our southeast. This is illustrated by the GFS model above, valid 9p Wednesday night.
Washout to End the Week?
Models have come into agreement on a late workweek system impacting the area.
Once showing chances for snow, guidance is now suggesting temperatures will simply be too warm, resulting in a widespread rain event.
An upper level low will pinwheel out of the Longhorn State northeast through the Tennessee Valley, picking up ample moisture out of the Gulf in the process.
Thursday night through Friday looks wet. This is suggested by the latest GFS, valid 12a Friday through 6a Saturday:
With saturated ground in place (see flood warning update near the top of this post), we could easily see levels rise to create minor flooding issues once again.
Total rainfall from this system should range between 0.5-2″ for most.
Here’s a look at the next 6 days:
That’ll wrap up the first wxornotBG forecast of 2019! Our real-time weather feed will be churning, as always, @wxornotBG. Have a great start to the New Year!