Potential for Storms Today Before Sunshine Returns

Morning, folks, and Happy December 1st! Hope your soggy weekend is off to a great start and you’re staying dry. We are not out of the clear yet, as there is a potential for storms today before sunshine returns. I know what you’re thinking…it’s December, how could we see some storms? I'm sure this is your reaction to seeing the possibility of storms on the first day of December. (Giphy)

I’m sure this is your reaction to seeing the possibility of storms on the first day of December. (Giphy)

A Few Strong Storms Possible Today

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk (1/5) for thunderstorms today over the western half of our region.

Convective Outlook (SPC)
Convective Outlook for today (SPC)

While the greater risk for severe thunderstorms is to our west, we could still have some heavy rain, small hail, high winds, and maybe a few stronger thunderstorms in our area today.

Surface map for today (WPC)
Surface map for today (WPC)

Looking at our surface map, the low pressure that is driving our weather for today is located way out in Kansas. A strong cold front is draped along the Mississippi River and extends down into the Gulf of Mexico, and a warm front is cutting across Kentucky over Louisville.

We currently located in the warm moist air mass, also called the warm sector. (University of Illinois)
We are currently located in the warm moist air mass, also called the warm sector. (University of Illinois)

We are positioned in what we call the Warm Sector, which makes sense since our temperatures have been warmer than the first few days of this past week. We have strong winds coming from the south, and that will help drive our temperatures for today into the mid 60’s, and dew points in the upper 50’s. Today will have some high winds, mainly sustained winds 15-20 mph, with occasional gusts up to 30 mph possible.

The HRRR Model showing 6am to midnight tonight. (Pivotal Weather)
The HRRR Model showing 6am to midnight tonight. (Pivotal Weather)

Rain that has started overnight will continue at least throughout the morning hours. By the afternoon hours, we could see some isolated/scattered storms, which could be strong. By the early evening hours, the rain moves out of our area for good, and skies should clear after midnight.

HRRR model shows stronger storms just after noon. (Pivotal Weather)
HRRR model shows stronger storms just after noon. (Pivotal Weather)

The HRRR model shows one possible outcome of some strong (maybe severe) storms moving across our area just after lunch time.

As mentioned before, the primary threats for today look to be winds, heavy rain, and small hail. You can’t completely rule out the small probability of a tornado, but it is not a main threat for today. The amount of rain we get could be a problem, since the ground is already very saturated from all the rain we got yesterday and overnight into this morning.

This is a complex system, and confidence on the strength of storms is low and nothing is set in stone. Make sure to stay up to date with the forecast throughout the day, and especially for the afternoon hours.

What it looks like trying to predict the future. (Giphy)
What it looks like trying to predict the future. (Giphy)

Sunny Sunday, But You’ll Need a Windbreaker

After a busy weather day, Sunday is looking to be a great day, especially for those Christmas parades. Plenty of sunshine throughout the day, and temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60’s. You really can’t get more perfect than that.

GFS model showing temperatures and winds at the surface for noon on Sunday. (Pivotal Weather)
GFS model showing temperatures and winds at the surface for noon on Sunday. (Pivotal Weather)

Winds will be out of the south on Sunday, and they will be breezy. We can see winds around 15 mph, and gusts as high as 30 mph. So make sure to hang on to your Santa hat at the parade! Overall, the sunshine and higher temperatures are exciting.

I don't know about you, but I am excited for the sunshine to return. (Giphy)
I don’t know about you, but I am excited for the sunshine to return. (Giphy)

For Sunday night, low temperatures will bottom out in the low 40’s, which won’t be too bad considering the low temperatures were in the teens a few days ago.

Dry Conditions Carry Over Into Monday

The start of the new work week will be dry, but there will be more clouds over our heads. A secondary, and weak, cold front will pass over us, keeping high temperatures much lower than Sunday. No precipitation will be associated with this front.

Surface Map for Monday (WPC)
Surface Map for Monday (WPC)

High temperatures will only hit the mid to upper 40’s, which is quite a change from out temperatures expected for Sunday. Winds will shift and come from the northwest, which is why temperatures stay lower. By the night time hours, temperatures will dip into the mid 30’s.

(Giphy)
(Giphy)
NWS Louisville
NWS Louisville

That wraps up today’s forecast. Hope you have a sweet Saturday! Make sure to follow @wxornotBG on Facebook and Twitter for updates throughout today about the possibility of storms.

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