Good Morning everyone, and Happy Wednesday. I hope you all are ready for winter. It is finally knocking on our door, and incoming possible wintry mix is ready to shake things up.
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for our area, which includes Warren, Butler, Edmonson, and Logan counties.
A Winter Weather Advisory for mixed precipitation means that periods of freezing rain, sleet, and snow may cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads late this evening and during the overnight period.
Given the complexity of winter weather, any minor changes in the system speed or specific location can cause some changes to the forecast.
As noted in the earlier post, any nudge north or south of this complex event will result in major changes to the forecast. Please stay up to date with the forecast and be prepared for a worst case scenario.
Winter-like Wednesday Evening/Thursday Morning
Today will start out with partly cloudy skies, but clouds will thicken throughout the day today, as precipitation begins to lurk closer to our area.
Clouds will on the increase due to an upper level low pressure system propagating to the northeast from Texas/Arkansas. This low will cause some problems for the Ohio Valley. The NAM 3km model shows the Low tracking right over our area.
You won’t need your rain gear for the morning commute, but you will need it for your drive home. Current model trends hint at rain starting after lunchtime. Send your kids to school with a heavier coat today, high temperatures should only reach the mid to upper 30’s.
Winds may also be gusty at times, peaking around 25 mph. Long story short, today is going to be a bitter wake up call to those who don’t look at the forecast and go out in shorts.
By the early evening (around 6-8pm), thermometers will begin to dip closer to freezing, and rain is expected to transition to a wintry mix by the nighttime hours. This includes freezing rain and sleet, and it is likely to persist overnight and into Thursday morning. The NAM model shows what today/tonight might look like.
Sorry kids, any accumulating snow looks to stay to the west and north of our area, so no sledding is forecasted for this week. We may see some snowflakes, but freezing rain and sleet are the main menu items for tonight. Here’s a simple breakdown of what to expect, thanks to the National Weather Service.
Anticipate ice accumulation of around 0.01 inches, which does not seem like a lot, but this could still cause some issues for our areas. Impacts tonight into tomorrow will be slick spots on the roads, falling tree limbs, and brief power outages.
Don’t know the difference between freezing rain and sleet? Check out the graphic below or read more info provided by our friends at the National Weather Service.
Wintry Mix Hopefully Ends Thursday Morning
With temperatures eventually going above 32ºF tomorrow morning, wintry mix should transition back to rain.
A concern is the morning commute, which could cause some problems if temperatures are not above freezing then. Models suggest rain ending by the late morning to early afternoon.
There is a chance of some snow flurries or wintry precipitation again tomorrow evening should we get some wrap around moisture from the Low exiting our region. If this should occur, it does not seem to create a major hazard.
Thursday temperatures look to reach the low 40’s, and winds staying primarily under 10 mph. The good news is that by Thursday evening skies will begin to clear with temperatures dropping to the upper 20’s.
Clear Friday to Start Weekend
A high pressure will move into the Southeast by Friday, bringing back sunny blue skies.
Our surface winds will be out of the southwest, helping to raise temperatures a little bit. Max temperatures should hit the low 50’s, making Friday a beautiful day. Lows look to dip into the lower 30’s Friday night.
Lastly, here’s a look at the next 5 days:
That wraps up today’s forecast. Hope you have a wonderful Wednesday! Make sure to check in often for updates on the winter weather and follow @wxornotBG on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram!