Better enjoy the leaves while they are still on the trees, because we are in store for some wild November weather as a nighttime severe storm threat looms.
High winds, isolated tornadoes, and flash flooding from these storms are possible from sunset through the early morning hours of our Tuesday.
Increasing Temperatures, Wind Shear, Cold Front Fuels Storms
As we anxiously await tonight’s storms, temperatures will rise to the mid 60’s by late afternoon under cloudy skies. This will make for a repetitively decent fall day, with strong, southerly winds being the only downfall.
This warm up, however, will only make the atmosphere more unstable, helping fuel possible storms set to arrive later.
Winds will increase throughout this Monday, not just on the ground, but high above the surface. The difference between wind speed and direction at different heights is called wind shear, which contributes another important ingredient to severe weather by providing spin to the storms.
The latest HRRR models thinks we’ll have plenty of that available tonight:
With these ingredients in place and an approaching cold front providing lift, the SPC has placed our region under a 2/5 risk for severe storms this evening into tonight:
The highest threat for severe weather will reside to our southwest, including portions of Tennessee, Mississippi and Arkansas. Don’t let that water down your awareness regarding our severe threat. It will definitely be present.
Lines of Severe Storms Possible After Sunset
Look for the first round of storms to approach the western tier of our coverage area by early evening (~6pm), with additional lines possibly forming behind it. Should this be the case, the evolution of the system will turn into a congealing mess, which the latest NAM 3km illustrates occurring:
The greatest threat tonight will be damaging winds, with secondary threats being brief, isolated tornadoes and flash flooding.
Our severe threat will likely not exit our region until the early morning hours (~1-2am) Tuesday, so charge up your phone in case you lose power.
It’s worth noting that this forecast isn’t a “home run”. There are several question marks about the evolution of this system, and how the atmosphere behaves to our south and west will dictate what we end up seeing.
Like we always say, we feel it’s our duty to supply you with the necessary information, regardless of the outcome. It’s much better to be prepared ahead of time.
Regardless if it comes to fruition or not, you should be prepared. Follow these severe weather safety tips from NWS Louisville:
Cool and Quieter Rest of Week
Tuesday ends the severe threat with clearing skies and an afternoon high in the mid 60’s. We’ll also be dealing with very brisk, westerly winds howling at 20-35+mph. Wednesday and Thursday will feature chilly, scattered shower chances, with highs only reaching the mid 50’s.
That’s all I have for today. Follow @wxornotbg on twitter for the latest weather info, and check back with us this afternoon for an updated post. Don’t forget to have a guaranteed way of being informed should any severe watches/warnings be issued. Stay safe!