We’ve been closely monitoring this morning’s data, and not too much has changed. A severe weather event will potentially unfold this evening into tonight, with a multitude of impacts possible. Here’s your much-requested afternoon severe weather update.
We’re already seeing storms that have developed to our west, and as of 2:10pm, they are making their way east of the Mississippi River into far western Tennessee and Kentucky.
Throughout the afternoon ahead of these storms, southerly winds will continue to increase, picking up between 20-30 mph gusts in the process.
Our window of inclement weather won’t arrive until we move later into this evening.
Although initial showers/storms will be possible by ~4p, the timing for highest concern won’t arrive until later (that doesn’t mean we won’t be keeping close tabs on the earlier arrivals).
Severe weather parameters will be ripest in our area between ~6p – 1a, when a squall line of intense storms will sweep west to east over the area. The latest HRRR is on board with this:
Aside from the HRRR, other models show similar timing, getting the bulk of the system out of our area around or just after midnight. Therefore, we’ve refined the timing as necessary.
Impacts / Concerns
Without question, this is a classic fall weather setup, complete with a nocturnal squall line marching through our vicinity.
The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center keeps the entire area in a 2/5 severe risk as a result, with those along the KY/TN line, east of I-65 being the most susceptible:
With these types of events, damaging, straight-line winds are our highest concern. Wind gusts with the line moving through will range around ~40-50 mph, with some storms potentially producing gusts of 60-70+ mph.
Another key characteristic with these types of events are brief, spin-up tornadoes along the leading edge of the line, or lines, of storms that could develop in the given environment.
Our least concern, but still a possibility, is the storms putting down 1-2+” in a short amount of time. Obviously, this could lead to flash flooding concerns.
Here’s a graphic from the NWS for an overview:
It goes without saying, but what our atmosphere does leading up to this will have impacts on exactly how this event unfolds.
If we get deluged with storms and rain early on, this could act to suppress instability later in the night, which would result in a less-than-impressive event (keep your fingers cross this happens).
It’s our job to keep you aware of what our atmosphere may do, and to keep you prepared whatever the end result is.
With any inclement weather event, including this one, you should have multiple ways of being informed should any severe weather watches/warnings be issued. If one is issued, take action.
Nighttime events are my least favorite. Often times people are sleeping, making them less aware of their meteorological surroundings.
In case of a power outage, make sure your phone is charged in case of an emergency. Have a plan in place should any warning be issued.
If a tornado warning is issued, you need to be on the lowest floor, away from windows, and in the central most part of your home. Interior closets and bathrooms are ideal.
Follow For Updates
Heed all warnings, and have a safe rest of the day and night, folks.