Hey folks! I alluded to this in the post this morning, but I wasn’t able to go into much depth about our expectations. We are anticipating a significant heatwave on the way beginning Friday, and lasting through at least the middle of next week.
We have seen quite the stretch of storminess across the state over the past week or so, seeing daily occurrences of strong to severe storms. This has been due to multiple upper lows slowly moving across the region over the past week.
However, over the past couple of days, a strong ridge of high pressure has begun to make its presence known across the south-central and southwestern US. It is forecast to develop eastward, and not move too much over the coming days.
The models are consistent in trending towards an intense ridge across the central and eastern US. In addition, each run is gaining more consistency and showing a stronger high.
This is not a good thing. We are looking at a 5-7 day period of potentially intense heat for the week of the Fourth of July. This is a major concern because of how many people have outdoor activities.
Let me lay out the bones of this forecast, and tell you what it means for you.
- This high looks anomalously strong. Based on current and recent model runs, it appears as if the high will be stronger than 90% of highs this time of year.
- This will result in oppressive heat on a daily basis. Highs will likely be between 93ºF and 96ºF daily.
- Not only will it be hot, it looks humid. Individual models and their ensembles continue to indicate a high probability that dewpoints will be in the mid and upper 70s during the afternoon hours next week.
- Heat indices will likely exceed 100ºF for at least two days during the time frame. While temps won’t be record breaking, the combination of heat and humidity will result in these dangerous heat index values.
- There will likely be isolated storm chances each day, but not enough to cool everyone off.
- Confidence in this forecast is Medium.
This will create a significant heat event that doesn’t look short lived. Models indicate that this could last through the latter parts of next week.
So, considering a major holiday is next Wednesday, and that everyone has outdoor plans this time of year, how should you prepare? Keep these things in mind:
- Check on your elderly neighbors and family, just to be safe.
- Stay hydrated, and try to limit outdoor plans to the early morning or late evening hours.
- Take frequent breaks when you’re outside during the afternoon hours.
- Remember pets! Don’t leave them outside too long, and be sure they have plenty of water.
If you keep the heat in mind over the next week, you’ll be perfectly fine. It’ll just be pretty uncomfortable any time you are outside.
We aren’t trying to hype anything up with this; however, with recent model trends, I wanted to be sure I outlined the threat of impactful heat over the coming days.
Be sure to follow the blog, and @wxornotBG for the latest on the heat and other weather items over the coming days! Have a great night folks.