Good morning everyone, and welcome to today’s edition of “Who will see a thunderstorm!” Today is likely the one last day of storms before the heat makes its triumphant return, but there is still a chance on Thursday as well.
Intense Storms Possible Again
We are currently in the wake of some early morning storms, especially those in Barren and Allen counties. These showers/storms will continue to push eastward this morning, and will leave partly sunny skies (when the sun rises) in their wake.
There continues to be a frontal boundary to our north near the Ohio River and in southern IN/IL. This, plus various outflow from other storms, will focus as the primary forcing for thunderstorms this afternoon.
The hi-res models have been pretty poor at handling the convection already this morning, so that is certainly not encouraging for their forecasts this afternoon. However, the atmosphere looks like it will again become primed for strong storms this afternoon.
With sunshine moving in, instability will again develop. There won’t be strong winds aloft to help organize these storms, but they should be able to organize well enough to pose some severe risk. The SPC has subsequently outlined us in a Slight Risk.
Expect highs to only make it into the mid 80s this afternoon.
Storm Chances Lower Thursday
By Thursday, the frontal boundary looks like it will have made its way towards our region, setting up from Missouri through southern KY by the afternoon.
There doesn’t look to be forcing as focused as the previous few days, but models are indicating the possibility of storms developing along this during the day on Thursday.
Based on the atmospheric conditions that would result from some sunshine, I would expect isolated storm chances to continue on Thursday.
Model performance is pretty bad right now, so I am trusting the set up over what the models are specifically showing in terms of precipitation. Expect highs in the mid and upper 80s.
A Multi-Day Stretch of Pool Days is Upcoming
Folks, come Friday afternoon? We will officially be experiencing some of the hottest weather of the year. A major ridge of high pressure is expected to develop across the eastern US, and not move too much.
In addition to this, the models and their ensembles have been gradually indicating an increasingly strong ridge as we approach the event itself.
This is going to mean business heading into this weekend, as the heat will be oppressive. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid, and possibly upper, 90s across the region starting Friday.
In addition to this, dewpoints are looking to be in the mid and upper 70s through at least this weekend. This will create a dangerous heat combination.
We don’t hype here at wxornotBG, but this is a serious threat to take in, and we want y’all to be prepared. Models are indicating that this heat may last through mid to late next week, which would be quite impactful.
We will have more on this in the coming days, but expect a multiple day stretch where the highs are between 93ºF and 96ºF, with heat indicies well into the 100ºF range.
Well, that is all I have folks! Enjoy this one last day of storms before the heat comes after us this weekend! Follow @wxornotBG for the latest weather info throughout the day.