Hey folks! A crazy period of weather is expected these next few days. We are here to bring you the latest on the expected severe thunderstorms to be followed by cold weather!
Warm and Windy Today
A strong surface low pressure system is expected to develop and move to our north over central and northern Indiana this afternoon and evening.
This has already caused the warm front to surge northward this morning, leading to temperatures in the 60s for all of us. As we speak, a couple of things are happening. One, rain is moving through. Two, the pressure gradient is tightening.
The rain was expected; the models have been indicating rainfall this morning for several runs. This is expected to clear by early afternoon and give way to some sunshine. That isn’t good; we don’t want sunshine today.
The other thing is that the pressure gradient it tightening. We are expecting winds to really be howling out of the southwest this afternoon ahead of any thunderstorms. These could gust in the 40 to 45 mph range.
Because of this, there is a Wind Advisory in effect from 11 am through 9 pm tonight.
As a result, the southwesterly flow will help our temperatures rise into the upper 70s for highs. It’ll feel like spring out there folks!
Severe Thunderstorms Expected This Evening
This gets us to the beef of our forecast. As the low move to our north, a powerful cold front is expected to approach us.
Ahead of this, instability (food for storms) will be present, with a lot of wind energy. This will help to force a strong squall line along the cold front.
The main threats are typical: damaging, straight-line wind gusts, isolated spin up tornadoes, lightning, and large hail. The models have also been indicating a chance for some isolated storms ahead of the main line. If that happens, the hail and tornado threat would increase with those storms.
The SPC (see graphic above) has placed us in an Enhanced Risk for severe storms this afternoon and evening. We are expected the storms to approach and move through between 7 and 9 pm this evening.
Much Colder Wednesday; Warmer Thursday
Won’t dive too deep into these days because today’s forecast is much more important, but Wednesday and Thursday will be much less active.
After the powerful cold front rocks us tonight, temps are expected to plummet tonight and into Wednesday. We’ll likely be waking up to lows in the lower 30s.
By Wednesday afternoon, expect sunshine and temps in the upper 40s, around 47°F. Thursday will be nicer temperature wise, as we look to get back into southerly flow.
This will help us warm back into the upper 50s and maybe even lower 60s. I’m thinking highs will end up around 60°F for Thursday.
We will have updates on the blog and on Twitter and Facebook as the day goes on. Be sure to follow us @wxornotBG on both services for the latest on the forecast. Have a great day, and stay weather aware!