Rainy, Gloomy, Wild Weather Through Midweek

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Clouds increase today before a heavy rain event unfolds tonight; few may deal with a wintry mess.

Posted by Landon Hampton on Tuesday, February 6, 2018

Increasing Clouds Today

Well, folks, we are looking at quite the set up across our region for the next couple days. The Ohio Valley is truly showing its transition zone muscles.

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

We are starting the day off cloudy, with pretty thick, low-level clouds present across the region. The presence of clouds has held temperatures up overnight, with the lowest temps only falling into the low 30s.

Clouds last night held low temperatures in the low 30s this morning. h/t KY Mesonet
Clouds last night held low temperatures in the low 30s this morning. h/t KY Mesonet

We’ll see thicker cloud cover increase throughout the day, even if our low-level clouds scour out (that won’t be quick). Highs today will only end up around 40°F, which is just lame.

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

This evening and into the overnight hours is when things get pretty interesting.

Heavy Rain, Chance for Brief Wintry Mix

So, by about 6 PM we will be staring this system right in the face. Precipitation will blossom to our southwest, and move north and northeast towards us.

The HRRR model develops precipitation and brings it into the region between 8 and 10 pm. h/t pivotalweather.com
The HRRR model develops precipitation and brings it into the region between 8 and 10 pm. h/t pivotalweather.com

The onset of precipitation across our region can be expected between 8 and 10 pm. This system will be tough, because there is a chance that the freezing line may dip down into our northern counties.

On of the hi-res models I trust the most, the HREF, has the freezing line this evening *just* north of Butler and Edmonson counties. h/t SPC

This would cause some frozen precipitation issues. Butler and Edmonson counties are the counties with the highest threat to see some wintry mix at the onset of this precip. I don’t think the threat is high, but it is there.

*When you see freezing rain might be in the forecast*   h/t giphy.com
*When you see freezing rain might be in the forecast*
h/t giphy.com

North of those two, there is a winter weather advisory for freezing rain, showing you just how close we will be to the fence on this system.

For many of us? We will mainly see plain rain, which is definitely a good thing. The rain will intensify in strength as we go throughout the night, with peak rainfall intensity between midnight and 5 am.

The hi-res NAM is bringing heavy rain into the region overnight and into early tomorrow. h/t pivotalweather.com
The hi-res NAM is bringing heavy rain into the region overnight and into early tomorrow. h/t pivotalweather.com

The system will push through Wednesday morning, with winds shifting northwesterly. Rain will quickly move off to our east, but we may see a quick transition to snow or a wintry mix on the back side. No accumulations are expected.

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

I want to emphasize something: systems like this are very dynamic and difficult to forecast. Even this close to the event, models differ on surface temperatures and placement of the 32°F line tonight.

*Seeing the models still struggling with this system* h/t giphy.com
*Seeing the models still struggling with this system* h/t giphy.com

That is the key. We will be watching trends all day, and will update you all as is necessary!

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

The rest of Wednesday will feature gradual clearing, with clouds remaining most of the day even still, with highs only in the mid 30s.

Warm up on Thursday

Thursday will be a nice break from active weather. And it will also be focused on the least in this forecast post!

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

We’ll likely see partly cloudy skies during the the day, with highs rising back up into low and mid 40s. That isn’t much of a warm up, but it is something!


That is all I have, folks! Be sure to check out our live twitter feed @wxornotBG and wxornotBG on Facebook for the latest Bowling Green weather information. Have a great day!

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