Gloomy, Rainy Day Ahead
Well, let me give the knowns of this challenging forecast first. We are currently sitting in the upper 40s this morning, with a cold front sitting just to our northwest. Clouds have overspread the region.
As divergence (air flowing in opposite directions) increases across our region this morning, clouds will continue forming and precipitation will blossom. It should be really developing across our region between 10 am and noon.
The heaviest rain should fall this afternoon, between 1 pm and about 5 pm. After this is when things get dicey!
So, Will we see Snow?
That question is really complicated. The basic set up is that temperatures will be crashing behind a stout secondary cold front this evening. Most of the models hold precipitation across the region as temperatures crash, leading to some snowfall.
All of the models (sans the highest res model) have quickly trended higher with snowfall totals across the region. At this point, after seeing several days of nothingness from the models, I am just left bewildered.
I am hesitant to expect anything significant, because the consensus is that the freezing line won’t be here until 8 or 9 pm, and I don’t expect precipitation to stay too long around here.
Plus, road temperatures will be in the upper 30s and lower 40s. For now, I don’t anticipate significant accumulating snow. I think 1″ of snow would be our max, but even that would have surprised me yesterday.
Prime time for snow will be between 5 pm and 9 pm, so travel impacts are possible. Be sure that you take your time on the evening commute, especially in heavier snow showers. We will update throughout the day!
Much Colder Friday
After that secondary front marches on through the region, temperatures will drop quite a bit. We’re looking to wake up with temps around 20°F Friday morning.
Sunny skies will clear out as a high pressure system moves into the region. However, despite the beautiful day, expect highs to be around 32°F.
Yeah, it’ll be one of those days where you look outside and think, “Wow, I bet it is nice outside!” but it is really just cold.
Saturday is, well, complicated
I thought that I would be confident in this weekend’s forecast by now, but I am not at all. The models are, to no one’s surprise, quite inconsistent and at this point, I can’t pin point anything that is set in stone.
What I do know: clouds will increase on Saturday, and temperatures should get up into the 40s. But that is dependent on a lot of stuff too.
Stay tuned, because this forecast is still struggling.