Isolated storm chances remain in the forecast Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, a more organized storm threat will emerge on Friday. Get the deets below!
Today – Isolated Afternoon Storms – High 86° / Tonight – Partly Cloudy – Low 67°
Today’s weather will be fairly similar to yesterday’s weather, which means it should turn out to be a nice day for the most part.
A broad upper level trough is located across the eastern United States, keeping things a bit cooler than we saw at the end of July.
After a partly cloudy start to the day, some afternoon showers and storms will be possible today. This will be after the lunch hour through the evening after temperatures reach the high around 86°. While I think coverage on the HRRR model may be overdone, it gives you a good idea of isolated cells after the lunch hour.
Storms will remain isolated but could be strong enough to contain heavy rain, lightning, isolated gusty winds, and even some small hail. No widespread severe weather is expected at this time.
Storms should diminish in the evening hours. Partly cloudy skies should develop overnight with a low around 67°.
Thursday – Isolated Afternoon Storms – High 86° / Thur Night – Mostly Cloudy – Low 68°
A rinse and repeat forecast is in store for Thursday. Moisture will continue to crawl into the region, leading to afternoon showers and storms once again. Highs will top out around 86°.
Mostly cloudy skies will develop overnight thanks to ongoing, organized storms to the north of the region. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 60s once again.
Friday – Thunderstorms Likely – High 82° / Fri Night – Isolated Storms – Low 57°
A more organized thunderstorm threat could evolve on Friday thanks to a cold front moving through the region. The NAM Model depicts the cold front moving through in the late afternoon and early evening.
A warm, moist air mass will be in place ahead of the cold front. A few showers and storms may form ahead of the front. However, greatest coverage will be along the front.
A moderately unstable atmosphere ahead of the cold front will lead to isolated strong storms embedded within a developing line of storms. The area of most concern is along and east of I-65 with gusty winds and small hail being main threats.
Precipitable Water values between 1.5″-2″ will result in highly precipitation-efficient thunderstorms. This means heavy rain will be possible with any storms. Fortunately storms should move fairly quickly, resulting in a minimal flash flooding risk.
As of now the Storm Prediction Center has outlined the region in a “marginal” risk of severe weather. Think of this as a level 1 out of 5 threat. This may be altered in the coming days.
Isolated storms may be possible through the rest of the evening. Overnight lows should drop to around 57° after the cold front passes through.