Just as a prequel to our weather over the next several days, Tropical Storm Cindy formed in the central Gulf of Mexico yesterday afternoon. She currently has 60 mph winds, and is quite expansive. The northern extent of her clouds are already here, and her precipitation shield extends up to just south of Birmingham.
Tropical Storm Cindy will largely be the driving factor of our weather between now and the weekend. BUT, today looks pretty decent! Yesterday ended up being pretty warm, with a high of 88°F noted here in BG. Expect for similar conditions today, but clouds should be gradually increasing through this evening as Tropical Storm Cindy gradually moves northwestward into the Texas/Louisiana coast.
Don’t expect rain today, but it should be approaching the region by laaaaate during the overnight hours. Highs this afternoon should be in the upper 80s.
Today: Increasing clouds – High around 88°F | Tonight: Cloudy, with rainfall late – Lows around 73°F
Tomorrow is when the action begins to get going. A trough associated with a surface cold front over the northern Plains will be moving south and eastward, and will act to “pick” Tropical Storm Cindy up from the western Gulf states, and force her to move northward.
This will swing an anomalous amount of moisture towards our region, which makes sense given the tropical nature of what we’re working with. These environments are looking potentially historic. Precipitable Water (the amount of precipitation you would have if all the moisture was squeezed out of the atmospheric column) records are 2.04″ for tomorrow at Nashville, and 2.50″ on Friday. We will approach and maybe break these records, indicating the threat for heavy rainfall.
Rain should move in here during the morning hours tomorrow, and last intermittently through much of the day. Highs will be held down, and only end up in the mid and upper 70s.
Tomorrow: Cloudy, with rainfall – Highs around 75°F | Tomorrow night: Mostly cloudy, with showers/thunderstorms possible – Lows around 74°F
Friday is the real day that looks to bring heavy rainfall. That same shortwave will be associated with a surface cold front, and that will approach the region by Friday morning. This cold front will ultimately drive the track of Tropical Storm Cindy, which is important for a couple of reasons. One, the heaviest rainfall will be along and just north of Tropical Storm Cindy’s track. The northern play will have the cold frontal forcing with anomalous moisture.
This will create a band of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms that will likely train across the same region for several hours, creating serious flash flooding threats. Along her track, we’ll see the rainfall associated with her core and likely some stronger winds as well.
Additionally, there also appears to be a severe weather threat just to the south of Cindy’s core and that track. This is a highly fluid forecast, and a lot of these things depend on timing and eventual track of Tropical Storm Cindy.
Be sure to keep in touch with the forecast, and stay weather aware. Highs Friday will likely only end up in the lower 80s.
Friday: Showers and thunderstorms; flash flooding is possible – Highs around 81°F | Friday night: Showers and thunderstorms moving out – Lows around 65°F
Overall, depending on the track of Tropical Storm Cindy, we are anticipating 2-4″ of rainfall. This will cause significant flooding issues, especially is much of it materializes it on Friday.