Severe Weather Chances Tonight and Tomorrow

Forecast Discussion

The main topic for today is obviously tonight’s chance for a severe weather.

Summary of tonight’s setup. (Giphy)

Temperatures throughout the day today won’t be much warmer than yesterday, but it will be much more humid. This is all thanks to a warm front that has lifted through the region, bringing in those higher dew points with southerly winds.

Approximate frontal positions at 7am this morning. (Weather Prediction Center)

Because we’ll have both plentiful moisture and sufficient warmth, the atmosphere will be decently unstable. Wind fields throughout the atmosphere are suggestive of an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System), a large, bowing line of thunderstorms that can cover a wide area and cause wind damage. Damaging winds are our main threat today, followed by large hail and flooding from heavy rain the storms bring with them.

Our area is in an Enhanced Risk (or 3 out of 5) for severe weather today. (SPC)

With regards to timing this is where things become complicated, because there’s several different ways this can play out. One model is indicating that storms will form just to our northwest and impacting us around midday, this would rob us of the instability (which will be plentiful) to sustain more storms later at night.

A run of the HRRR model from late last night shows this possibility, with the greatest severe risk to the south. (Pivotal Weather)

Another, more likely scenario is that we remain mostly sunny all day with a chance of a pop-up strong storm or two, but the main show forming during the afternoon out in the plains and rolling towards our area during the late evening and into the overnight hours. This scenario also shows storms weakening a bit and moving a bit more to our south. It’s a trend we’re going to watch closely over the next 12-18 hours. This is by no means set in stone, so you’ll want to check up on the latest forecast throughout the day.

The Hi-res NAM’s solution to keep us dry during the day before bringing storms in at night. (Pivotal Weather)

Today: Outside of potential afternoon pop-up thunderstorms, mostly sunny and humid with a high of 84º. Severe weather chances go up at night, with a low only around 70º.

  • Wake up: 🌤 71°
  • Lunch hour: 🌤 80°
  • Afternoon plans: 🌤/⛈ 84°
  • Evening time: ⛅️/⛈ 72°

Tomorrow looks complicated as well.


Well, with the front poised to move in and finally clear us out, the question comes down to instability. If that line of storms comes through late Saturday night into Sunday morning, it wouldn’t leave much time for the atmosphere to destabilize on Sunday and we’d only see a few showers along the front.

On the other hand, if the thunderstorms hit earlier than currently anticipated today and we miss out on the overnight line, we would have more instability to work with and therefore a higher threat of more strong to severe storms. This isn’t set in stone yet either, so check back with us often for the latest details.

Sunday: Rain and clouds early with skies clearing later in the morning. More scattered thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, a few could possibly be on the strong side with a high around 80º. Clouds finally begin to clear Sunday night and our lows will fall to around 60º.

  • Wake up: ⛈ 71°
  • Lunch hour: ⛅️ 75°
  • Afternoon plans: ⛅️/⛈ 78°
  • Evening time: ⛅️/⛈ 68°

After we get past tomorrow, Memorial Day itself looks absolutely gorgeous.


High pressure will begin to dominate the region after the cold front comes through and scours out the humidity. This means sunny skies, lower humidity, and a great day to grill out…we just have to get through the next 48 hours first.

🇺🇸Monday🇺🇸: Plentiful sunshine and lower humidity with a comfortable high around 82º. Skies clear at night and we drop back to a low of around 60º.

  • Wake up: 🌤 66°
  • Lunch hour: 🌤 75°
  • Afternoon plans: 🌤 81°
  • Evening time: 🌤 65°

Today’s Key Points

  • Complicated forecast today with severe thunderstorms possible into tonight.
  • Main threats being damaging winds and large hail along a thunderstorm complex.
  • Sunday’s storm chances dependent on what happens today.
  • Memorial Day looks absolutely spectacular.

That just about does it for this morning! Thanks for checking into wxornotBG, and be sure to follow @wxornotBG and @WKUweather on Twitter and like Landon Hampton on Facebook for the latest on today’s severe weather chances. Have a terrific Saturday!