Cold Front Brings Soggy Weekend

wxornotBG 4/19/17: Beautiful today; rain/storm chances late Thursday through Sunday.

Posted by Landon Hampton on miércoles, 19 de abril de 2017

Today – Partly Cloudy/Isolated PM Showers – High 81° / Tonight – Partly Cloudy – Low 63°

A relatively nice day is in store today as some upper level ridging moves into the region. This will bring calm conditions with it. Expect partly cloudy skies for most of the day with a possible pop-up shower or storm during the afternoon and evening hours. These won’t be quite as widespread as the past couple of days. Highs will be around 81° across the region.

Showers and storms that pop up be like... h/t
Showers and storms that pop up be like… h/t

Any storms that do form should quickly fade around sunset. That will leave us with partly cloudy skies overnight with a low around 63°.

Thursday – Partly Cloudy/Isolated PM Showers- High 82° / Thur Night – Showers and Storms – Low 60°

A shortwave trough will move well north of the region on Thursday. This will produce and sustain a low pressure system near the Great Lakes region. We will be placed in the warm sector as the cold front is noted to the west of the region, stretching from Indiana into Arkansas. Southwest flow will help temperatures climb a couple more degrees versus today. Once again isolated showers and storms may develop during the heat of the day.

WPC Forecast Frontal Positions - Valid Thursday - NOAA WPC
WPC Forecast Frontal Positions – Valid Thursday – NOAA WPC

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight as the cold front triggers storms to the west of the region. No severe weather is expected at this time, but a couple storms could produce a few gusty winds. Lows should drop to around 60°.

Friday – Showers and Storms Likely – High 68° / Fri Night – Showers and Storms Likely – Low 56°

A few model discrepancies lowers the confidence in the fine details of the forecast on Friday. The NAM and European models have a slower frontal progression, which pushes the cold front through Bowling Green at around  7 AM, whereas the faster GFS pushes the cold front through during the early morning hours.

NAM Model Forecast Temperatures - Valid 4 AM - College of DuPage
NAM Model Forecast Temperatures – Valid 4 AM – College of DuPage

The timing and progression of the front are important factors in rainfall development throughout the day. If the front pushes through sooner, less rainfall may be possible. However, if the front moves slowly, more rainfall will be likely. Either way, expect showers and storms to be likely as the front stalls just south of the KY/TN border. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s, depending on where the front stalls.

Me...trying to sort this out. h/t
Me…trying to sort this out. h/t

The cold front will begin to act more like a warm front during the overnight hours. The frontal boundary may begin to leak northward, which would lead to an increase in precipitation as moisture overruns the surface front. All in all, a wet period should persist overnight and into Saturday. Lows will be in the mid 50s.

That should wrap up this forecast. Be sure to follow @wxornotBG and @WKUweather for the latest Bowling Green weather information. Also check out Landon Hampton on Facebook for the latest weather vlogs! Have a great day!