Yesterday was probably ten times nicer than I expected it to be in any scenario. I didn’t see clouds clearing out as quickly as they did, so I was completely wrong on the forecast. I mean, you win some, you lose some, right? Oh well.
Today: Mostly cloudy, with isolated thunderstorms. Highs around 71°F. Overnight, look for mostly cloudy skies, with severe thunderstorms possible. Threat: Damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes. Lows around 70°F.
- Bus Stop: ☁️/⛈ 56°F
- Lunch hour: ☁️/⛈ 64°F
- School is out: ⛅️ 70°F
- Evening time: ⛅️ 71°F
Tomorrow: Severe thunderstorms likely early. Threat: Damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes. Expect some clearing by the afternoon of clouds. Highs around 73°F⬇️ . Overnight, look for mostly clear skies, with lows around 34°F.
- Bus Stop: ⛈ 73°F
- Lunch hour: ⛅️ 65°F
- School is out: ⛅️ /🌤 54°F
- Evening time: 🌤 45°F
Thursday: Much cooler, but mostly sunny. Highs around 54°F. Overnight, look for mostly clear skies, with lows around 30°F.
- Bus Stop: 🌤 34°F
- Lunch hour: 🌤 45°F
- School is out: 🌤 54°F
- Evening time: 🌤 46°F
This is gonna be a doozy of a discussion. I am fairly concerned about the severe weather threat that is aimed at the region overnight and into the early morning hours of your Wednesday.
The majority of this discussion will be spent talking about that as a result. Currently, we are waking up to mostly cloudy skies, with storms to our north and to our south. This is in association with a warm front that lies *just* to our southwest. This is producing enough lift that storms are tapping into a layer of elevated instability above the surface.
Some areas have seen small hail out of these, so if we have any cluster of storms move in, be watching for that. However, I think storms stay relatively isolated in our area.
Once that warm front passes us, there will be a stark difference. We’ll be ushered into south to southwesterly flow that will likely strengthen throughout the day as the surface low to our northwest strengthens. This will warm us up this afternoon, and will allow us to approach 70 this evening and before midnight.
This airmass will also have much more moisture to work with, creating an unstable airmass ahead of the front. As the front approaches tonight and into tomorrow morning there will be plenty of ingredients to work with. Model guidance has painted significant instability, strong wind shear (changing of wind speeds with height), and they’ve added in a directional component to the changing winds during the last few runs. That means that the winds are turning more with height, increasing a potential tornado threat.
I want to emphasize this: these storms will be moving through late in the night and early in the morning. My timing has them moving through between 4 am and 10 am. The atmosphere is primed for severe weather during that time. With the combination of the winds in the atmosphere, and the instability, this is a serious severe weather threat. All threats are on the table, with damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes all being possible. Be sure you have a way to be woken up in the event of a severe weather situation. Practice what you would do in a severe weather situation. Whether we see severe weather or not, it is good to be prepared anyways.
After the front comes through midday on Wednesday, temps are going to plummet. They’ll fall from the 70s tomorrow morning into the 40s by the evening time. THEN lows look to hit the mid 30s by Thursday and Friday mornings.
Speaking of Thursday, it looks to be nice and calm. Highs in the low 50s. That will be nice for a change.
Today’s Key Points
- Storms and rain this morning; no significant severe weather expected for this morning
- Warms up by the afternoon
- Front and forcing approaches overnight
- Severe line of storms possible to likely to move through during early morning hours
- Timing is between 4 am and 10 am
- Damaging winds are the primary threat, but tornadoes and hail are possible too
- This threat is significant, and should be treated as such. Have an action plan ready to go!
- Thursday looks cool but much nicer