Since this morning’s blog post, the severe weather threat across the region has increased substantially, with mesoscale models showing discrete supercells developing this evening to our southwest. As you can see above, the SPC has placed us in an Enhanced Risk for severe weather, with a Moderate Risk to our northwest.
The ingredients look to all combine this evening and well into the overnight hours to produce severe thunderstorms capable of all severe weather modes. We have:
- Ample lift and dynamics for storms to for
- Strong wind shear, both in strength (speed changing with height) and in direction (changing wind direction with height)
- Ample moisture and an unstable atmosphere
These will also be moving through during the overnight hours. That is what is concerning. The ingredients necessary for strong, long-lived tornadoes are present in the overnight hours. That is very significant, and is why this event should be taken so seriously.
Here are the major impacts and timing that can be expected:
- A significant severe weather event is expected, especially just to our north.
- All modes of severe weather are expected
- Tornadoes, Hail and Damaging winds are all possible
- Higher tornado threat is in the Paducah to Louisville range
- Supercells should develop and move towards our region early in the morning, bringing with them a threat for tornadoes
- Timings: 12 am through 6 am should include the clusters of supercells, and 6 am through noon should bring with it the threat for a damaging squall line.
Obviously, we’ll be working hard here at @wxornotBG to bring you the latest through the evening hours. Be sure to follow @wxornotBG on Twitter for the latest updates.