Major Rainfall on the Way for Bowling Green Weather

Real-time Bowling Green Weather Radar


Yesterday’s Weather

Yesterday’s weather, and really the past few days of weather, have just been downright cool outside. I mean on Friday the high was hit at 3:41 am, and it was only 48°F. Yesterday was cold as well, with a high of only 49°F being seen.

Yesterday's climate report. h/t NWS Louisville
Yesterday’s climate report. h/t NWS Louisville

Forecast Summary

Today: Mostly sunny early, with clouds gradually increasing. Highs around 56°F. Overnight, look for mostly cloudy skies, with showers possible late. Lows around 44°F.

  • Wake up: ☀️ 30°F
  • Lunch hour: 🌤  53°F
  • Evening time: 🌥  54°F

Tomorrow: Cloudy, with rainfall/thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected as well. Highs around 55°F. Overnight, look for gusty winds/rainfall to continue, with a strong storm or two possible. Lows around 50°F.

  • Bus stop: 🌧 49°F
  • Lunch hour: 🌧 52
  • School is out: 🌧/⛈ 55°F
  • Evening time: 🌧/🌧 53°F

Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs around 64°F. Overnight, look for increasing clouds, with rain likely late in the night. Lows around 55°F.

  • Bus stop: 🌤  51°F
  • Lunch hour: 🌤/⛅️  60°F
  • School is out: ⛅️/🌥  64°F
  • Evening time: 🌥  60°F

Discussion

This is about to be a doozy of a forecast discussion. Hold onto your hats because its about to get interesting (for once).

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

As an aside to what the overall pattern is looking like heading into the next week to two weeks, we are looking at a fairly meridional (active) pattern across the central and eastern United States, with plenty of precip opportunities, and the outside chance at snowfall.

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

This week looks more rainfall interesting, though. Today, the weather looks fairly calm. We are in between systems, as the system that had plagued us since Thanksgiving has finally propagated eastward. However, the cloudlessness will not last very long, as the system forecast to affect us tomorrow-Tuesday advects moisture into the atmosphere as a whole.

h/t COD Weather
h/t COD Weather

Anticipate clouds to move in this afternoon, and to thicken up by this evening. Overnight, clouds will increase and keep temperatures elevated heading into tomorrow. By tomorrow morning, we should be looking at our first rainfall of the event.

The NAM forecasting precip across the region by tomorrow morning. h/t pivotalweather.com
The NAM forecasting precip across the region by tomorrow morning. h/t pivotalweather.com

The basic meteorological set up is fairly complicated for this event. A deep, deep trough at all levels of the atmosphere is forecast to propagated into the north-central US by tomorrow evening. As this occurs, a surface low pressure system is forecast to develop across eastern Colorado, and propagate northeastward into the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota by tomorrow evening.

The development of the surface low tomorrow. h/t pivotalweather.com
The development of the surface low tomorrow. h/t pivotalweather.com

As this occurs, there will remain a strong high pressure system across the east coast. This is important because the pressure gradient between the low to our northwest and the high to our east. As can be expected in a scenario like this, winds will likely be fairly gusty tomorrow, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. I would not be surprised to see isolated gusts in the 40s. This will only be made worse by the rainfall that is anticipated.

Look at the tightness of the pressure gradient by tomorrow afternoon! h/t pivotalweather.com
Look at the tightness of the pressure gradient by tomorrow afternoon! h/t pivotalweather.com

As we head into the evening, the low pressure system is anticipated to advect an anomalously moist airmass into the region, setting us up for fairly heavy rainfall as we head into the evening and overnight hours. I don’t know that we see thunder and lightning in this, but I think atmospheric forcing is great enough that we may see this occur.

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

The one thing that I haven’t really mentioned in this is the amount of wind shear that will likely be present in the atmosphere by tomorrow evening. What is likely to occur is that we see the deep, closed trough propagate towards us, but on its southern end, a shortwave trough quickly propagate towards us tomorrow evening. This is what is likely to force the intense precip, and what may be the primary forcing for an intense line of storms tomorrow evening.

The anticipated 500 mb winds and heights from the hi-res NAM for tomorrow evening. The shortwave moving towards us is denoted by the dotted line. h/t pivotalweather.com
The anticipated 500 mb winds and heights from the hi-res NAM for tomorrow evening. The shortwave moving towards us is denoted by the dotted line. h/t pivotalweather.com

There is not a lot of instability in the atmosphere, but often times, the magnitude of wind shear is able to overcome that. This is one of those cases where it is a possibility. Bulk shear in a layer of the atmosphere is almost exactly what it sounds like it is. It is the magnitude of the shear within that layer, and shear as a whole is key in thunderstorm organization. 35-40 knots is typically necessary for severe convection, and tomorrow evening we are looking at bulk shear values on the order of 75-80 knots, which is very intense. With our region being placed favorably with respect to the mid and upper level jet streaks, and a strong surface cold front, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some of the intense low level winds mix down towards the surface. It isn’t likely (because of the lack of instability), but it is a possibility.

The hi-res NAM is showing upwards of 85 knots of bulk shear tomorrow night, which is absolutely insane, and is plenty enough to create some potential issues with a low topped squall line. h/t pivotalweather.com
The hi-res NAM is showing upwards of 85 knots of bulk shear tomorrow night, which is absolutely insane, and is plenty enough to create some potential issues with a low topped squall line. h/t pivotalweather.com
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The hi-res NAM showing the potential for a line of showers/storms to move through tomorrow night. This could lead to isolated damaging winds being a threat. h/t pivotalweather.com

Outside of rain/thunderstorms, very gusty winds are anticipated as well. Look for winds tomorrow night ahead of the cold front to gust near 40 mph, and maybe higher. Lows overnight shouldn’t drop much because of clouds, but may get into the upper 40s.

By Tuesday, we see a break from the madness. Highs will warm back into the 60s, and it will be a nice day overall. However, but Wednesday, anticipate clouds and cool weather again, with rainfall likely. The magnitude of the rainfall isn’t exactly known yet, as the models are still deciphering where that axis of rain will set up. Here is the current forecast for rainfall for the next 5 days.

The forecast rainfall for the next 5 days. The rain is expected to impact regions that desperately need it. h/t WPC
The forecast rainfall for the next 5 days. The rain is expected to impact regions that desperately need it. h/t WPC

Today’s Key Points

  • Busy week ahead
  • Highs will be fairly warm the next three days
  • Nice today, but increasing clouds
  • Heavy rainfall tomorrow and into tomorrow night
  • Very gusty winds by tomorrow night
  • Chance of an isolated strong-severe storm tomorrow night
  • Nice and in the 60s on Tuesday
  • Rainfall again on Wednesday

Thats all I have for ya! Thanks for checking into WxOrNotBG this morning, and be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG and @WKUweather on Twitter and like Landon Hampton on Facebook for the latest Bowling Green Weather information. Have a great day folks!