Real-time Bowling Green weather radar:
Today, 4/24 – Clouds Increasing; Isolated PM Showers & Storms – High 67˚ / Tonight – Showers & Storms Likely – Low 53˚
Good morning, Bowling Green! Rain and possible severe weather are in the forecast for this weekend, but first, we’ll focus on what you can expect for your Friday…
High pressure that moved into the area last night will persist for much of the day today. This will keep us mainly dry, with the exception of a possible isolated shower or storm in the afternoon. Clouds will be on the increase throughout the day, however, as the next system in question moves eastward into the Great Plains region. Temperatures are expected to be a bit warmer than yesterday, with a high around 67°.
Tonight into tomorrow morning, we’ll see a more substantial probability of widespread rain, with rainfall totals a quarter of an inch to half of an inch possible. Temperatures will remain in the low 50s overnight.
Saturday, 4/25 – Thunderstorms (Potentially Severe) – High 76˚ / Saturday Night – Thunderstorms (Potentially Severe) – Low 54˚
After the first batch of rain moves out Saturday morning, we’ll have a few dry hours before the next wave moves through. As a low pressure system moves eastward, the models have south central Kentucky lodged in the warm sector, allowing for substantial instability to develop during the afternoon. The warm front will cause southerly winds to bring warm, moist air into the area, with temperatures in the mid to upper-70s.
The surface model below is valid for 7am Saturday morning, and depicts the warm front crawling northeast toward the area:
A few key “ingredients” are needed to make severe weather: lift, moisture, instability and shear. The southerly flow will bring sufficient moisture in from the Gulf, substantial convective potential energy – or “storm juice” – will be present in the atmosphere to account for instability, and various atmospheric components will allow for areas of uplift and organization.
Currently, these above parameters will be in place with the possibility for strong to severe storms on Saturday. Based on the latest model analysis, damaging winds, large hail, excessive rainfall and yes, the potential for tornadoes, will all be threats.
The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded south central Kentucky to an Enhanced Risk for severe weather Saturday afternoon and evening:
That means you better keep an eye on the skies, especially those of you with outdoor activities planned, including sporting events and high school proms.
We’ll continue to monitor the models throughout the day today and into the day tomorrow to supply you with the most up-to-date information through social media and future blog posts.
The map below shows the quantitative precipitation forecast (rain totals) for the weekend, valid between 7PM Thursday night through 7PM Sunday:
Rain chances will diminish overnight Saturday with lows once again in the low 50s.
Sunday, 4/26 – Partly Sunny – High 65˚ / Sunday Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 45˚
After the system moves through, clouds look to stick around for much of Sunday before giving way to partly cloudy skies late. Calmer weather is expected Sunday, as winds from the north bring cooler than average temperatures back into the area. Partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the mid to upper-60s are expected for the first part of the week. Temperatures Sunday night will fall back into the low 40s.