Real Time Bowling Green Weather Radar:
Today 4/9 – Scattered PM Strong Storms – High 84° / Tonight – Scattered Strong Storms – Low 58°
Model guidance is indicating conditions may be conducive for severe weather across south central Kentucky today. If the heavy, soupy feel to the air isn’t an indication of that possibility, I don’t know what is.
We’re waking up to partly to mostly cloudy skies, however, we could see strong storms develop as early as late morning. The HRRR Simulated Radar model is hinting at the possibility of a round of storms as early as 10am:
Thunderstorms will be possible for much of the day, but our focus is on two separate rounds. One of those rounds could potentially develop this afternoon, with another rolling through late tonight.
A shortwave trough will bring divergence aloft (air pulling away from each other) to the area, which will lead to increasing lift, an important ingredient needed for inclement weather to occur. Strong southerly flow will keep advecting warm, moist air into the region, much like it has been for the past several days. Wind gusts will howl at 20 to 30mph this afternoon.
As a response to this, instability values will increase. This is like the fuel for the storm, as instability increases, severe weather potential will also increase as a response. After highs reach the mid 80s, instability values will be quite high for Bowling Green and the surrounding area.
Wind shear will also be in place, leading me to believe that organized storms will be likely. The only question mark is when storms form.
The main forcing for thunderstorms will be a cold front that will move through during the overnight hours. However, if thunderstorms form this afternoon and evening, they may very well be severe with large hail, damaging wind, and isolated tornadoes all possible.
We’ll also need to keep an eye on our water levels, as flash flooding looks imminent, considering how saturated our soil is from this past week’s showers and storms.
The Storm Prediction Center has similar thinking regarding today’s forecast. They have issued an Enhanced Risk of severe weather for south central Kentucky. They believe the main threat will be damaging wind as well.
A line of storms should form along and ahead of the cold front during the overnight hours. This is supported by the HRRR model below, which paints a broken line of convection plowing east into Kentucky at 8pm tonight:
The main threat with this line of storms will be damaging wind, isolated large hail, and isolated, brief tornadoes. Lows will drop to around 58° after the cold front moves through the area.
Friday 4/10 – AM Clouds; Sunny Afternoon – High 67° / Fri Night – Mostly Clear – Low 45°
Morning clouds should move out rather quickly as the cold front continues to move to the east of the region. High pressure will help to bring mostly clear skies to the region in the afternoon. Cooler temperatures are forecast though compared to the past several days, as forecast highs will only be in the mid to upper 60s.
Friday night will bring mostly clear conditions to the region with lows in the mid 40s.
Saturday 4/11 – Partly Cloudy – High 66° / Sat Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 47°
High pressure will move into the region on Saturday. This will keep the clouds away, but with the center of high pressure located to our north, a slight north wind will help keep temperatures on the chilly side. Partly cloudy skies seem likely with highs around 66°.
Saturday night will bring more clouds to the region, but they shouldn’t be moisture laden enough for showers. Lows will be around 47°.
Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX for the latest weather information regarding south central Kentucky. WKU students should follow @wkuCHAOS for information regarding WKU-specific weather. More posts will be made this afternoon as the weather situation evolves over time. Have a safe day.