Friday Afternoon Weather Update

Real-Time Bowling Green Weather Radar:

This Afternoon – Partly Sunny – High 42º / Tonight – Mostly Clear – Low 24º

 6pm 37º – 9pm 31º – 12am 28º – 3am 26º – 6am 24º

Good afternoon, it has been a downright beautiful day across southern Kentucky this afternoon. As we prepare to wrap up the work week, expect temperatures in the lower 40s for the remainder of the afternoon under mostly clear skies. TGIF


High pressure will be centered over Kentucky overnight which means we can expect calm weather to continue. Skies will be mostly clear tonight with temperatures tumbling into the lower to middle 20s.

Predicted surface analysis valid at midnight CST tonight (Courtesy: WPC)

Saturday – Clouds Increasing – High 48º / Sat Night – Iso’d Rain & Snow Showers – Low 34º

Saturday will start out beautiful but some changes are on the way as low pressure will form to our west in association with an upper-level trough. Ahead of this low, light southerly surface winds will aid afternoon high temperatures in reaching the 40s, although if warm air advection is strong enough we could see highs make a run at 50º.

Clouds will start to increase during the afternoon hours and skies are expected to become cloudy by sunset tomorrow night. As low pressure approaches Kentucky, precipitation chances will begin on Saturday night.

Isolated rain showers are expected but we will have to watch temperatures very closely at the onset of precipitation because if temperatures are a few degrees cooler we could expect some of these rain showers to briefly begin as a mix of rain and snow with no accumulations expected. Precipitation amounts will be very light tomorrow night, with some locations remaining dry until daybreak on Sunday.

QPF valid from midnight to 6am CST Sunday (Courtesy: WPC)

Sunday – Rain – High 47º / Sun Night – Sct’d Rain & Snow Showers – Low 27º

At one point it appeared that this storm had the potential to produce wintry weather in Kentucky. Now that we are around 36 hours out from the onset of precipitation, it will take a generous southerly shift in the track of this storm to bring significant snow to southern Kentucky.

Low pressure is expected to track very close but north of our area which will keep temperatures too warm for snow through the majority of the event. Steady rain will impact the area throughout the day on Sunday with high temperatures reaching the upper 40s under cloudy skies. Take a look at what the latest run of the high resolution NAM model thinks the radar will look like on Sunday:

18Z 4km NAM simulated reflectivity valid from 6am to midnight CST Sunday (Courtesy: College of Dupage)

Model guidance has come into decent agreement with precipitation amounts today as most models are indicating around an inch of rainfall will fall on Sunday. The real fun will begin on Sunday night as low pressure moves off to the northeast and a cold front sweeps across the state.

The cold front is expected to pass east of Bowling Green around sunset Sunday and surface winds will turn to the west as temperatures drop throughout the night. Once again, we will be watching to see how quickly cold air catches up to the back edge of precipitation. At this time it appears likely that precipitation will end as light snow showers after midnight as low temperatures drop down into the 20s. Accumulations, if any, will be light.

Behind this weekend’s system, temperatures are looking very chilly to start next week.

That’s all I’ve got for this afternoon. Be sure to keep up with @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on Twitter for real-time weather updates.