To Snow or Not to Snow? That is the Question

Real-Time Bowling Green Weather Radar:

Today – Rain/Snow – High 40º / Tonight – Mix/Snow Likely – Low 29º

6am 32º – 9am 36º – 12pm 38º – 3pm 40º – 6pm 36º

Everyone wants to know how much it’s going to snow. The answer…probably not a lot. The storm moving into the area throughout the day will pack ample moisture, the problem is that temperatures will hover just above the necessary (freezing) mark for a legit, accumulating snow to take place…


“But I did my snow dance til 3am!!”

A light wintry mix of rain/sleet/snow has already started falling across portions of south central Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures are above freezing, and are expected to climb as the day progresses, resulting in a transition to all rain during the mid morning.  The latest HRRR simulated radar model below displays a wintry mix still lingering at 10am:

HRRR Simulated Radar Valid 10am - Weatherbell Analytics
HRRR Simulated Radar Valid 10am – Weatherbell Analytics

As we get into this afternoon and evening, temperatures will begin to tumble as a low pressure system to our southeast cuts a path north-northeast along the Atlantic Coast.  The NAM 10-meter wind speed model below helps illustrate this taking place.  Winds are flowing over Kentucky from the northwest = cold air will be advecting into the area.

NAM Wind Speeds Valid 12am Saturday – Weatherbell Analytics

I believe the following 4km NAM snowfall map shows pretty well what will happen tonight.

4km NAM Snowfall Through 6am Saturday - Weatherbell Analytics
4km NAM Snowfall Through 6am Saturday – Weatherbell Analytics

Many areas could potentially see a light coating of wet snow, perhaps up to an inch, if anything.


What’s a guy gotta do to get some snow around here??

If the snow can start early enough at the tail end of the precipitation band, some areas may pick up even more. Most of the snow that falls initially will struggle to stick to the warm ground. Road surfaces will remain in fairly good shape, even if snow starts to accumulate on the grass and elevated surfaces.

Overall: this will not be a major event and accumulations will be light at best. Because the ground is so warm and surface temperatures will remain right at/just above freezing, slick spots will be limited to mainly secondary and back roads. However, as with any wintry precip, be cautious heading out late tonight and tomorrow morning.

Saturday – Mostly Sunny – High 48º / Sat Night – Clear – Low 30º 

The sun will come out tomorrow and the temperatures will warm back up to near 50 degrees. That means any white stuff that does stick will be gone quick! Bad for the snow lovers, great for everyone else.

Sunday – Isolated Showers – High 52º / Sun Night – Isolated Showers – Low 36º

Rain creeps back into the area Sunday with a clipper system moving to our north. This clipper will feature mostly rain for our area with maybe a few isolated snow showers on the back side. Not looking like a big deal currently. The NAM shows the bulk of the precipitation staying toward the Cincinnati area.

NAM Simulated Reflectivity
NAM Simulated Reflectivity

That’s it for this morning. Be sure to stay up to date with all your real time Bowling Green weather info @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on twitter. We’ll be updating the blog periodically today, so be sure to check back in. Have a great Friday!